An analytical breakdown of the upcoming welterweight bout between Jack Della Maddalena and Carlos Prates suggests Prates has the advantage. The analysis notes that while Maddalena's style works when he is the aggressor, Prates struggles when pressured, as demonstrated by Ian Garry. However, Maddalena lacks Garry's kicking and footwork skills, forcing him to rely more on boxing where each exchange risks a counter from Prates. The piece argues that even if Maddalena wins early rounds, Prates remains dangerous until the final seconds, citing how Garry dominated four rounds but nearly lost in the fifth. The conclusion favors Prates because Maddalena would need to maintain perfect defensive discipline for 25 minutes while pressuring forward, which the analyst doubts is realistic.
A recent analytical breakdown of the upcoming UFC Perth welterweight matchup between Jack Della Maddalena and Carlos Prates concludes that Prates holds the meaningful edge heading into the contest.
Della Maddalena, ranked fourth in the welterweight division and 13th in the pound-for-pound standings, enters the fight at 18-4-0. The 29-year-old Australian, who trains out of Scrappy MMA, is one of the division's most active strikers, landing 5.57 significant strikes per minute at 51 percent accuracy. Standing five-foot-eleven with a 73-inch reach, he operates out of a switch stance and has built his reputation on relentless forward pressure and sharp boxing.
Carlos Prates, known as "The Nightmare," brings a 24-7-0 record and sits one spot below Della Maddalena at fifth in the welterweight rankings. The 32-year-old Brazilian, who trains with Vale Top Team, stands six-foot-one with a notably longer 78-inch reach and lands strikes at 55 percent accuracy. His output is lower at 3.77 significant strikes per minute, but the analysis frames that as a reflection of his counter-fighting style rather than passivity.
Why it matters
- The analyst argues Della Maddalena lacks the kicking game and footwork that Ian Garry used to pressure Prates effectively, limiting him to a boxing-heavy approach where Prates's counters become a constant threat.
- Prates's length advantage — a 78-inch reach against Della Maddalena's 73 inches — compounds the danger of those exchanges on the inside.
- Even if Della Maddalena builds an early lead, the piece warns that Prates remains a finishing threat deep into championship rounds, pointing to how Garry nearly surrendered a dominant performance in the fifth.
- The analyst ultimately favors Prates on the basis that sustaining perfect defensive discipline across 25 minutes of forward pressure is an unrealistic ask of Della Maddalena.
