Rogan: Chimaev could lose first fight at UFC 328

Joe Rogan has weighed in on the middleweight title picture ahead of UFC 328, stating publicly that Khamzat Chimaev could suffer the first defeat of his MMA career when he faces the champion at the May 9 event.

Chimaev, known as "Borz," enters the bout as the No. 1-ranked middleweight and No. 10 on the pound-for-pound list, carrying a 15-1 record into what would be the biggest fight of his career. The 32-year-old, who trains out of Allstars Training Center and competes under the United Arab Emirates flag, has built his reputation on suffocating pressure and elite grappling. He averages 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes and lands significant strikes at a rate of 4.04 per minute with a striking accuracy of 60 percent — numbers that place him among the most well-rounded threats in the division. He also adds 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes, making him dangerous on the ground from multiple angles. Standing six-foot-two with a 75-inch reach, he brings elite physical tools as well.

Rogan, while acknowledging Chimaev's near-perfect profile, pointed to vulnerabilities that have emerged more recently as the basis for his assessment. The commentary adds significant momentum to the buildup around a fight that already carries enormous divisional weight.

Why it matters

• A loss would drop Chimaev from the No. 1 contender spot and scramble the middleweight rankings below the title.
• Rogan's platform gives the prediction wide reach, intensifying public scrutiny of Chimaev's recent performances.
• The style matchup — Chimaev's wrestling-heavy, high-volume approach against a reigning champion — presents genuine tactical questions.
• Other top middleweights stand to benefit significantly if Chimaev's unbeaten run finally comes to an end.