A highly unusual occurrence happened at UFC 328, where two fighters who secured 8 or more takedowns in title fights both ended up losing their bouts. Historically, UFC fighters who land 5 or more takedowns in championship fights win 81.08% of the time, while those landing 7 or more win 83% of the time. Khamzat Chimaev and Kai Kara-France (Taiira) executed 9 and 8 takedowns respectively but still lost their title matches. Kara-France achieved strong takedowns with complete ground control lasting nearly 11 minutes, yet was still finished. The post analyzes how even elite-level wrestlers maintain roughly 80% win probability, but factors like weight cutting issues, minor injuries, travel, or facing well-rounded strikers can drastically shift those odds. The commentary suggests that while Chimaev showed strong wrestling, developing more comprehensive striking skills and strategic setups could make him even more dangerous as a complete mixed martial artist.
Two fighters landing eight or more takedowns in UFC title bouts walked away with losses at UFC 328 on May 9, marking one of the rarest statistical outcomes in championship fight history.
Khamzat Chimaev, the No. 1-ranked middleweight and No. 10 pound-for-pound fighter in the world, attempted to dethrone champion Sean Strickland but came up short despite recording nine takedowns on the night. The 30-year-old — fighting out of the UAE under the Allstars Training Center banner — carries a 15-1 professional record and is one of the most prolific grapplers in the division, averaging 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes across his career. His striking accuracy sits at a sharp 60 percent, and he averages 1.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes, making him a genuinely multi-dimensional threat.
Strickland, the reigning middleweight champion, successfully defended his title at 35 years old. The Xtreme Couture product holds a 31-7 record and fights out of an orthodox stance. Standing six-foot-one with a 76-inch reach, Strickland is among the highest-volume strikers in the UFC, landing 6.04 significant strikes per minute, enough output to keep opponents off-balance even when they secure repeated takedowns.
In the co-main title fight, Kai Kara-France recorded eight takedowns and accumulated nearly 11 minutes of ground control but was still finished, adding to the statistical anomaly of the evening.
Why it matters
- Historically, UFC fighters landing five or more takedowns in title fights win 81 percent of the time; landing seven or more pushes that figure to 83 percent, making two such losses on one card extraordinarily rare.
- Strickland's defensive output and striking volume proved that elite grappling volume alone cannot guarantee a championship result against a well-rounded striker.
- Chimaev's night underscores that complementing his elite wrestling with more developed striking combinations and setups could make him an even more complete title challenger going forward.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
