At UFC 328, a rare event occurred twice: fighters who executed eight or more takedowns in a title fight lost their bouts. Historically, UFC fighters who land five or more takedowns in title fights win 81.08% of the time, while those with seven or more takedowns win 83% of the time. Khamzat Chimaev landed nine takedowns and Tatsuro Taira landed eight, both with significant control time, yet both lost. The analysis emphasizes that elite wrestling still provides an 80% win probability, but total well-roundedness remains superior. The post discusses how weight cutting, injuries, and other circumstances can dramatically shift odds against even top-level wrestlers, and suggests Chimaev should develop his striking game more comprehensively given his physical tools and power.
UFC 328 produced a statistical anomaly so uncommon it happened twice on the same card: two fighters each landed eight or more takedowns in title fights and still walked away with a loss.
Khamzat Chimaev, the middleweight contender ranked first in his division and tenth pound-for-pound, recorded nine takedowns in his championship bout. The 32-year-old fighting out of the United Arab Emirates under the Allstars Training Center banner carries one of the most dominant wrestling profiles in MMA, averaging 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes across his career. At 15-1-0, "Borz" had long been viewed as a near-certain finisher whenever he dragged a fight to the mat, yet that formula fell short against reigning middleweight champion Sean Strickland.
Strickland, 35, holds a 31-7-0 record and defends his middleweight title out of Xtreme Couture. The American southpaw — standing six feet one with a 76-inch reach — is one of the sport's highest-volume strikers, landing 6.04 significant strikes per minute. His 42-percent accuracy is modest, but the sheer output makes him dangerous across all five rounds.
In the flyweight title fight, Japan's Tatsuro Taira landed eight takedowns and still could not secure the belt. Ranked fifth at flyweight, the 26-year-old averages 3.12 takedowns and 1.6 submission attempts per 15 minutes, backed by a sharp 60-percent striking accuracy. His 18-2-0 record had made him one of the division's brightest prospects, but control time alone proved insufficient.
Why it matters
- Historical UFC data shows fighters landing five or more takedowns in title bouts win roughly 81 percent of the time, making two losses in one night a genuine outlier.
- Both results reinforce that elite grappling volume does not guarantee championship success when opponents solve the control game with durability and counterstrike output.
- Chimaev's physical profile — six-foot-two, a 75-inch reach, 60-percent striking accuracy — suggests his striking arsenal has room to expand, which could make him significantly harder to weather even when takedowns are neutralized.
- The card raises broader questions about how weight-cutting demands and accumulated damage may undermine the effectiveness of wrestling-heavy game plans at the championship level.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
