At UFC 328, a rare occurrence happened twice as fighters who landed 8 or more takedowns in title fights still lost their bouts. Historically, UFC fighters who land 5 or more takedowns in title fights win 81.08 percent of the time, and those with 7 or more win 83 percent of the time. Chimaev landed 9 takedowns and Tatsuro Taira landed 8 with nearly 11 minutes of control time, yet both lost their respective fights. The post analyzes that while elite wrestlers maintain roughly 80 percent win probability, total MMA versatility remains superior. Factors like weight cutting, injuries, travel, and opponent skill can dramatically shift those odds against even dominant wrestlers. The analysis suggests Chimaev has potential to become more well-rounded and could benefit from developing his striking game further with proper coaching.
UFC 328 produced a statistical anomaly that will likely fuel debate for some time — not once but twice on the same card, a fighter dominated on the ground in a title fight and still came away with a loss.
Khamzat "Borz" Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira each piled up takedowns in their respective championship bouts at the May 9 event, yet neither walked out with a belt. Chimaev recorded nine takedowns and Taira eight, with Taira accumulating nearly eleven minutes of control time. Historically, UFC fighters who land five or more takedowns in title fights win just over 81 percent of those bouts. At seven or more, that figure climbs to around 83 percent. On this night, both men beat those thresholds and still lost.
Chimaev, the number-one ranked middleweight and number-ten pound-for-pound fighter, carries a 15-1-0 record into the aftermath of Saturday's event. The 32-year-old United Arab Emirates representative trains out of Allstars Training Center and averages 5.29 takedowns per fifteen minutes alongside a striking output of 4.04 significant strikes per minute at 60 percent accuracy — numbers that paint the picture of a fighter who is already dangerous on the feet but whose elite grappling remains his defining tool. The post-fight analysis notes he has room to develop his striking further, and with the right coaching investment that dimension of his game could become considerably harder to neutralize.
Taira, ranked fifth at flyweight, is 18-2-0 and just 26 years old. The Japanese fighter out of The Blackbelt Japan is five-foot-seven with a 70-inch reach and averages 3.12 takedowns per fifteen minutes. His 60 percent striking accuracy and 1.6 submission attempts per fifteen minutes suggest a well-constructed ground game, yet it proved insufficient to secure the title.
Why it matters
- Both losses challenge the conventional wisdom that sustained wrestling dominance is nearly decisive in championship rounds
- The results suggest elite MMA versatility can overcome even historically strong grappling volume
- External factors — weight cutting, travel, opponent-specific preparation — may increasingly erode the statistical edge wrestlers typically hold in title fights
- Chimaev's development arc and Taira's youth mean both fighters are likely to remain in championship contention despite the setbacks
Saturday, May 9, 2026
