At UFC 328, a rare statistical anomaly occurred twice on the same card when fighters who completed eight or more takedowns in title fights both lost their bouts. Historically in the UFC, fighters who land five or more takedowns in title fights win 81.08 percent of the time, and those with seven or more takedowns win 83 percent of the time. Khamzat Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira completed nine and eight takedowns respectively but both suffered defeats. Taira's takedowns were particularly high-quality with full positions and nearly 11 minutes of control time, yet he was still finished. The analysis suggests this demonstrates that while elite-level wrestling maintains roughly 80 percent success odds, total well-rounded skill sets remain superior, as wrestling is energy-intensive and highly dependent on weight cut, health, and circumstances.
Two title fights at UFC 328 produced a statistical rarity that has almost never been seen twice on the same card: fighters who completed eight or more takedowns in championship bouts still walked away with losses.
Khamzat Chimaev, the number-one-ranked middleweight and tenth on the pound-for-pound list, was the more prominent of the two. The 32-year-old fighting out of the UAE and training at Allstars Training Center carried a 15-1 record into the bout and completed nine takedowns in his title fight, yet still suffered defeat. Chimaev averages 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes over his career, lands significant strikes at a rate of 4.04 per minute, and shares a 60 percent striking accuracy figure that underscores his dual-threat profile.
Japan's Tatsuro Taira, ranked fifth in the flyweight division, added to the anomaly with eight takedowns of his own. The 26-year-old holds an 18-2 record and is considered one of the division's most refined grapplers. Beyond the raw takedown count, Taira generated nearly 11 minutes of control time and secured full dominant positions throughout, yet was still finished. He averages 3.12 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts submissions at a rate of 1.6 per 15 minutes, making his grappling output at UFC 328 far above his already-strong baseline.
Why it matters
- UFC data shows fighters landing five or more takedowns in title fights win 81 percent of the time, and those with seven or more win roughly 83 percent, making two losses in the same evening at those thresholds historically unprecedented.
- Both defeats suggest that elite wrestling, while a dominant tool, remains vulnerable to well-rounded opposition when physical factors like energy expenditure, weight cuts, or overall conditioning come into play.
- The flyweight and middleweight title pictures are both significantly reshaped by these results, with a ranked top-five fighter and the number-one middleweight contender both on the wrong side of the scorecards.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
