At UFC 328, a rare statistical anomaly occurred twice when fighters who completed 8 or more takedowns in title fights still lost their bouts. Historically, fighters who land 5 or more takedowns in UFC title fights win 81.08 percent of the time, and those with 7 or more win 83 percent of the time. Khamzat Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira completed 9 and 8 takedowns respectively but both lost their fights. Taira specifically had quality takedowns with long control time, accumulating nearly 11 minutes of control. The post analyzes that while elite wrestlers maintain an 80 percent win rate, total universalism in skill sets remains superior, as wrestling is highly energy-intensive and dependent on health, weight cut, and other circumstances.
UFC 328 produced a striking statistical anomaly on Saturday night when two fighters — Khamzat Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira — each completed eight or more takedowns in title fights and still came away with losses.
Chimaev, the number-one ranked middleweight contender representing the United Arab Emirates, entered the bout with a 15-1 record and one of the most dominant grappling profiles in the division, averaging 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes. Known as "Borz," the 32-year-old stands six-foot-two with a 75-inch reach and carries a 60 percent striking accuracy. Despite landing nine takedowns in his title fight against Sean Strickland, he could not secure the victory.
Strickland, the reigning middleweight champion, retained his belt at 35 years old. The American trains out of Xtreme Couture and carries a 31-7 record. Standing six-foot-one with a 76-inch reach, "Tarzan" averages 6.04 significant strikes per minute and has built his reputation on relentless output and durability rather than grappling.
Taira's result was equally remarkable. The 26-year-old Japanese flyweight, ranked fifth in his division, finished with a 18-2 record after the event. He completed eight takedowns and accumulated nearly 11 minutes of control time — extraordinary output for a title fight — yet still lost. Taira averages 3.12 takedowns per 15 minutes and a remarkable 60 percent striking accuracy, making him one of the more well-rounded grapplers at 125 pounds.
Why it matters
- Historically, UFC fighters who land five or more takedowns in title fights win 81 percent of the time; seven or more pushes that figure to 83 percent, making two losses in one night at these volumes extremely rare.
- The results suggest that elite wrestling alone does not guarantee championship success when an opponent can neutralize control time and sustain output.
- Both outcomes carry significant rankings implications, as Chimaev's loss at number one contender status reshapes the middleweight title picture considerably.
- The data point reinforces the growing analytical view that energy cost, weight cuts, and overall skill universalism can override even dominant grappling volume.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
