Chimaev and Taira lose title fights despite landing 8+ takedowns at UFC 328

A rare statistical anomaly occurred at UFC 328 where two fighters who landed eight or more takedowns in championship bouts both lost their fights. Historically, fighters who complete 5+ takedowns in UFC title fights win 81% of the time, and those with 7+ takedowns win 83% of the time. Khamzat Chimaev landed 9 takedowns and Tatsuro Taira secured 8 takedowns with nearly 11 minutes of control time, yet both were defeated. The analysis suggests that while elite wrestling still provides an 80% win probability, total mixed martial arts skills are more reliable. The post argues that wrestling is energy-intensive and highly dependent on health conditions, weight management, and other variables that can shift win probability dramatically against skilled striker-generalists.