Rare stat: Chimaev and Taira lose UFC 328 title fights despite 8+ takedowns

At UFC 328, a rare occurrence happened twice when fighters who secured 8 or more takedowns in championship bouts ended up losing their fights. Historically, fighters who land 5 or more takedowns in UFC title fights win 81.08 percent of the time, and those with 7 or more win 83 percent. Khamzat Chimaev landed 9 takedowns and Tatsuro Taira landed 8, yet both lost their championship matches. The analysis suggests that while elite wrestling provides an 80 percent win probability, total well-roundedness remains superior. The post notes that factors like weight cuts, injuries, and opponent quality can dramatically shift odds even for dominant wrestlers.