At UFC 328, a rare statistical anomaly occurred twice when fighters who completed eight or more takedowns in title fights still lost their bouts. Historically, fighters who land five or more takedowns in UFC title fights win 81.08 percent of the time, and those with seven or more win 83 percent of the time. Chimaev landed nine takedowns and Tatsuro Taira landed eight, both in losing efforts. Taira particularly had quality takedowns with full ground control totaling nearly 11 minutes. The analysis suggests that while elite-level wrestling still provides an 80 percent win probability, total mixed martial arts skill remains superior, as wrestling is energy-intensive and highly dependent on weight cutting, health, and other variables.
UFC 328 produced a statistical rarity on Saturday night — and then immediately produced it again. In back-to-back title fights, two wrestlers each completed eight or more takedowns and still walked away with a loss, a double occurrence that stands as a genuine anomaly in UFC championship history.
Khamzat "Borz" Chimaev entered his middleweight title fight as the division's number-one ranked contender and the tenth-ranked pound-for-pound fighter on the roster. The 32-year-old from the United Arab Emirates carried a 15-1 record and some of the most dominant wrestling volume the sport has seen, averaging 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes across his career. He landed nine takedowns in his championship bout and still came up short.
Flyweight contender Tatsuro Taira told a similarly striking story. The 26-year-old Japanese fighter ranked fifth in the flyweight division and brought an 18-2 record into the night. Taira's nine attempts turned into eight completed takedowns, and he used that grappling to accumulate nearly 11 minutes of ground control — sustained, purposeful wrestling rather than mere wrestling for point-scoring. It was not enough.
Why it matters
- Historically, UFC title-fight competitors who land five or more takedowns win 81 percent of the time, and those landing seven or more win at a rate of 83 percent — making two losses at eight-plus takedowns in one evening genuinely extraordinary.
- The results reinforce that elite wrestling, while a powerful championship tool, carries significant physical costs; the energy demands of repeated takedown attempts, compounded by weight-cut variables and overall health, can erode a grappler's finishing ability late in fights.
- Both losses signal that championship-level opponents are increasingly capable of surviving high-volume wrestling and finding paths to victory through complete mixed martial arts skill sets.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
