At UFC 328, a rare occurrence happened twice when fighters who completed eight or more takedowns in title fights still lost. Historically, UFC fighters who land five or more takedowns in title bouts win 81.08% of the time, and those with seven or more win 83% of the time. Khamzat Chimaev landed nine takedowns and Tatsuro Taira landed eight, yet both were defeated. Taira particularly had quality takedowns with nearly 11 minutes of control time but was still finished. The post analyzes that while elite wrestlers maintain high win percentages, total well-roundedness is superior, as wrestling is energy-intensive and vulnerable to factors like weight cuts, injuries, and opponent quality. The analysis suggests Chimaev should develop more striking versatility rather than relying primarily on wrestling.
UFC 328 produced a striking statistical anomaly on Saturday night when two fighters each recorded eight or more takedowns in their respective title bouts — and both walked away with losses.
Khamzat Chimaev landed nine takedowns in his middleweight title challenge yet was defeated, while flyweight contender Tatsuro Taira recorded eight takedowns and accumulated nearly 11 minutes of control time before being finished. The twin outcomes run sharply against historical UFC trends, which show that fighters who complete five or more takedowns in title fights win 81 percent of the time, a figure that climbs to 83 percent when the threshold rises to seven or more.
Taira, ranked fifth in the flyweight division at just 26 years old, entered the bout carrying one of the more impressive grappling profiles in the weight class. The Japanese fighter averages 3.12 takedowns per 15 minutes and attempts 1.6 submissions in the same window, pairing that ground threat with 60 percent striking accuracy. Despite the volume and quality of his wrestling at UFC 328, he could not survive a finish at the hands of champion Joshua Van.
Van, who retained his flyweight title at 24 years old, is a formidable champion representing Myanmar out of 4oz. Fight Club. He lands 8.84 significant strikes per minute at 56 percent accuracy, making him one of the most prolific and precise strikers in the division regardless of weight class.
Why it matters
- The outcomes challenge the conventional wisdom that dominant wrestling is near-decisive in championship rounds.
- Wrestling is energy-intensive and becomes less reliable when compounded by weight cuts, accumulated damage, or elite opposition.
- Chimaev's path forward may require broader striking versatility rather than continued reliance on a takedown-heavy game plan.
- Sean Strickland, the reigning middleweight champion at 31-7, continues to hold the title Chimaev sought, averaging 6.04 significant strikes per minute with a 76-inch reach that complicates closing distance for wrestling-first challengers.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
