UFC 328 featured a rare double occurrence where fighters who landed 8 or more takedowns still lost their title fights. Historically, fighters who land 5+ takedowns in UFC title fights win 81% of the time, and those with 7+ takedowns win 83% of the time. However, Khamzat Chimaev (9 takedowns) and Tatsuro Taira (8 takedowns) both lost their bouts despite these numbers. Taira had nearly 11 minutes of control time with quality takedowns but was still finished by Van. The post analyzes that while elite wrestlers maintain 80% win probability, total versatility is superior as wrestling is energy-intensive and highly dependent on weight cuts, health conditions, and circumstances. The analysis suggests Chimaev should develop more as a well-rounded fighter given his physical tools.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
