At UFC 328, a rare occurrence happened twice as fighters who landed 8+ takedowns in title fights both lost their bouts. Historically, fighters who land 5+ takedowns in UFC title fights win 81.08% of the time, while those with 7+ takedowns win 83% of the time. However, Chimaev landed 9 takedowns and Taira landed 8, with Taira controlling for nearly 11 minutes, yet both were defeated. The analysis suggests this demonstrates that while elite wrestling still provides an 80% win probability, total well-roundedness is superior. Wrestling is extremely energy-intensive and vulnerable to weight cut issues, injuries, and other factors that can dramatically reduce success rates against skilled strikers. For Chimaev specifically, the post suggests he has untapped potential as a more complete striker given his physical attributes and existing striking tools.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
