UFC 328 saw rare losses despite 8+ takedowns in title fights

A rare statistical anomaly occurred twice at UFC 328, as fighters who completed 8+ takedowns in championship bouts both lost. Historically, UFC fighters who land 5+ takedowns in title fights win 81.08% of the time, with that percentage rising to 83% for those landing 7+ takedowns. Chimaev landed nine takedowns while Taiyo Taiyo completed eight, yet both were defeated. Taiyo particularly had quality takedowns with full positional control and nearly 11 minutes of control time, but was still finished. The post analyzes how even elite wrestlers maintain only 80% win probability, and factors like weight cuts, injuries, and recovery can dramatically shift those odds against skilled striker-generalists.