At UFC 328, a rare statistical anomaly occurred twice: fighters who completed 8 or more takedowns in title fights still lost their bouts. Historically, UFC fighters completing 5+ takedowns in title fights win 81.08% of the time, while those with 7+ takedowns win 83% of the time. Khamzat Chimaev landed 9 takedowns and Tatsuro Taira landed 8, both with significant control time, yet both lost their championship fights. The analysis suggests that while elite wrestling maintains roughly 80% win probability, total mixed martial arts universalism is superior. Factors like weight cuts, injuries, travel, and cardio can dramatically shift a wrestler's odds against skilled well-rounded strikers. The post notes that Chimaev showed potential as a more universal fighter and could benefit from focusing more on striking development.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
