A statistically rare occurrence happened twice at UFC 328, as both Khamzat Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira lost their title fights despite recording eight or more takedowns. Historically, fighters who complete five or more takedowns in UFC title fights win 81.08% of the time, while those with seven or more takedowns win 83% of the time. Chimaev landed nine takedowns while Taira secured eight with nearly 11 minutes of control time, yet both were defeated. The post analyzes how high-level wrestlers maintain approximately 80% win probability, but total MMA versatility remains superior. Factors like weight cutting issues, injuries, travel, or health problems can dramatically shift a wrestler's chances against skilled striker-grapplers. The analysis suggests Chimaev should develop more versatile striking to complement his wrestling, noting he has the physical tools including an effective jab, knockout power, and explosive speed.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
