Joe Rogan explains why he knew Sean Strickland could upset Khamzat Chimaev

Joe Rogan has revealed why he believed Sean Strickland had a legitimate shot at defeating Khamzat Chimaev heading into their middleweight matchup, with the longtime UFC commentator pointing to a specific factor that gave him confidence in the champion's chances against a heavily favored opponent.

Strickland, 35, carries a 31-7-0 record and holds the middleweight title, representing the United States out of Xtreme Couture. The six-foot-one orthodox striker is one of the division's most active offensive threats, landing 6.04 significant strikes per minute. That volume-based pressure style has been central to his success throughout his career and, by Rogan's account, was likely central to why he saw a path to victory for Strickland.

Standing across from him was Khamzat Chimaev, ranked number one in the middleweight division and tenth on the pound-for-pound list. The 32-year-old fighting out of the United Arab Emirates holds a 15-1-0 record and trains at Allstars Training Center. At six-foot-two with a 75-inch reach, Chimaev is a physically imposing presence, and his numbers reflect a fighter who overwhelms opponents in multiple areas — a 60 percent striking accuracy and 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes make him one of the more complete threats in the sport.

Why it matters

• Strickland's high-volume striking output, at over six significant strikes per minute, presented a stylistic problem for Chimaev that Rogan identified as pivotal
• Chimaev's elite grappling rate of 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes made him a significant favorite, sharpening the stakes of any striking-based game plan
• The middleweight title picture is directly tied to how this matchup unfolded, with the divisional rankings and championship status on the line
• Rogan's public breakdown adds broader media attention to the narrative surrounding Strickland's reign and Chimaev's trajectory in the division