Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan Set for Trilogy Fight, Markets Favor Yan 60-40

Merab Dvalishvili and Petr Yan are set to meet for a third time, and the early money leans toward the Russian. A prediction-market listing on Kalshi puts Yan at 60 percent and Dvalishvili at 40 percent, with the matchup tied to UFC 333.

The first two fights between the bantamweight standouts could hardly have been more different. Dvalishvili took the opener on the scorecards, 50-45. Yan answered in the rematch with a 49-46 decision of his own.

The fighters

Dvalishvili, nicknamed "The Machine," is 21-5-0 and ranked number one in the bantamweight division. He also sits second in the pound-for-pound rankings. The 35-year-old from Georgia trains with the Serra-Longo Fight Team and is built on relentless pace and wrestling. He averages 6.4 takedowns per 15 minutes, a standout figure, while landing 4.33 significant strikes per minute at 42 percent accuracy. At five-foot-six with a 68-inch reach, he is the smaller man in the pairing.

Yan, known as "No Mercy," is the bantamweight champion with a 20-5-0 record. The 33-year-old from Russia fights out of the Archangel Michael Club and works from a switch stance. His striking numbers are the sharper of the two: 5.12 significant strikes landed per minute at 54 percent accuracy. He is the taller fighter at five-foot-seven, though his 67-inch reach is an inch shorter than Dvalishvili's. Yan averages 1.58 takedowns per 15 minutes, far fewer than his rival.

Why it matters

• The number-one contender meets the reigning champion, so the bantamweight title is on the line.
• The style contrast is stark: Dvalishvili's takedown volume against Yan's more accurate, higher-output striking.
• With each man owning a decision win, the trilogy would settle a rivalry that has produced two lopsided but opposite scorecards.

The market price reflects trader sentiment rather than any official assessment, but it suggests Yan is viewed as the slight favorite heading into the third chapter.