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AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
UFC Record Breakdown
This is the fight everyone’s been fantasy-booking since Islam Makhachev shocked the world and became a two-division champ at UFC 322. Shavkat “Nomad” Rakhmonov has been calling his shot, saying he can make it difficult for Islam everywhere—and honestly, he’s earned the right to talk. He’s undefeated, finished legends like Wonderboy with a slick rear-naked choke, and just went five hard rounds with Ian Machado Garry at UFC 310. Islam fired back, saying Shavkat can’t just sit around waiting for a title shot, but here’s the thing: this matchup is pure fire. You’ve got Islam, the pound-for-pound king who just dominated Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322 to capture the welterweight belt. His grappling is suffocating, and he’s riding an insane run that includes submitting Dustin Poirier in the fifth round and knocking out Volkanovski.
Both guys are submission hunters who turn up the heat in championship rounds - expect the danger to spike hard in rounds three through five when one tries to break the other.
But Shavkat is no joke on the mat either. The Nomad finished four straight fights before the Garry decision, blending nasty submissions with chaotic striking. And yeah—remember that wheel kick that put Carlston Harris to sleep? Dangerous everywhere. The real question is whether Shavkat’s size and power at welterweight can neutralize Islam’s wrestling pressure. Islam has looked unstoppable at 170, but he hasn’t faced someone with Shavkat’s finishing instincts and submission game at this weight.
Can the Nomad stuff the takedowns and punish the scrambles, or does Islam’s elite experience win out again? This would be for the welterweight strap with massive legacy implications. Islam is chasing history, trying to cement himself as an all-time great across two divisions. Shavkat is trying to announce himself as the most dangerous man at 170. The tension is already there—and fans are fully locked in.
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Shavkat Rakhmonov finish map
Shavkat Rakhmonov breakdown
Shavkat Rakhmonov's recent form
This is the fight everyone’s been fantasy-booking since Islam Makhachev shocked the world and became a two-division champ at UFC 322. Shavkat “Nomad” Rakhmonov has been calling his shot, saying he can make it difficult for Islam everywhere—and honestly, he’s earned the right to talk. He’s undefeated, finished legends like Wonderboy with a slick rear-naked choke, and just went five hard rounds with Ian Machado Garry at UFC 310. Islam fired back, saying Shavkat can’t just sit around waiting for a title shot, but here’s the thing: this matchup is pure fire. You’ve got Islam, the pound-for-pound king who just dominated Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 322 to capture the welterweight belt. His grappling is suffocating, and he’s riding an insane run that includes submitting Dustin Poirier in the fifth round and knocking out Volkanovski.
Both guys are submission hunters who turn up the heat in championship rounds - expect the danger to spike hard in rounds three through five when one tries to break the other.
But Shavkat is no joke on the mat either. The Nomad finished four straight fights before the Garry decision, blending nasty submissions with chaotic striking. And yeah—remember that wheel kick that put Carlston Harris to sleep? Dangerous everywhere. The real question is whether Shavkat’s size and power at welterweight can neutralize Islam’s wrestling pressure. Islam has looked unstoppable at 170, but he hasn’t faced someone with Shavkat’s finishing instincts and submission game at this weight.
Can the Nomad stuff the takedowns and punish the scrambles, or does Islam’s elite experience win out again? This would be for the welterweight strap with massive legacy implications. Islam is chasing history, trying to cement himself as an all-time great across two divisions. Shavkat is trying to announce himself as the most dangerous man at 170. The tension is already there—and fans are fully locked in.
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Islam Makhachev finish map
Islam Makhachev breakdown
Islam Makhachev's recent form
Pace delta
+0.6 significant strikes/min
Shavkat Rakhmonov averages 3.3 significant strikes per minute while Islam Makhachev sits at 2.6.
AI confidence
89%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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