UFC Record Breakdown
This welterweight scrap just got bumped up to the UFC 328 main card in Newark, and it makes total sense. Brady's coming off a brutal first round knockout loss to Michael Morales back in November, snapping that insane momentum he built with wins over Leon Edwards and Gilbert Burns. Meanwhile, Buckley's riding a crazy hot streak, knocking out Stephen Thompson and beating Colby Covington before dropping a decision to Kamaru Usman in June. Both guys need this one badly. Here's what makes this fight so good.
If Brady can't get takedowns in the first two rounds, Buckley's going to find that chin eventually.
Brady's a Renzo Gracie Philly product with nasty grappling. Remember when he locked up that guillotine from mount on Leon Edwards in the fourth round? Or that kimura he slapped on Kelvin Gastelum where he went 5 for 5 on takedowns? The dude's a problem on the mat. But that Morales knockout exposed something.
He's been finished by strikes twice now, and Buckley's got serious power in those hands. Buckley's whole game is about making you pay when you come forward. He starched Wonderboy with one punch in the third round and beat up Colby so bad they stopped it on a cut. The New Mansa is dangerous everywhere, mixing in takedowns when he needs them (went 4 for 4 against Ruziboev) and always hunting for the finish. Brady's gotta get this to the ground early and often, but closing distance on a southpaw counter puncher is sketchy business, especially after getting knocked out cold in your last fight.
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Shavkat Rakhmonov finish map

Shavkat Rakhmonov breakdown
Shavkat Rakhmonov's recent form
This welterweight scrap just got bumped up to the UFC 328 main card in Newark, and it makes total sense. Brady's coming off a brutal first round knockout loss to Michael Morales back in November, snapping that insane momentum he built with wins over Leon Edwards and Gilbert Burns. Meanwhile, Buckley's riding a crazy hot streak, knocking out Stephen Thompson and beating Colby Covington before dropping a decision to Kamaru Usman in June. Both guys need this one badly. Here's what makes this fight so good.
If Brady can't get takedowns in the first two rounds, Buckley's going to find that chin eventually.
Brady's a Renzo Gracie Philly product with nasty grappling. Remember when he locked up that guillotine from mount on Leon Edwards in the fourth round? Or that kimura he slapped on Kelvin Gastelum where he went 5 for 5 on takedowns? The dude's a problem on the mat. But that Morales knockout exposed something.
He's been finished by strikes twice now, and Buckley's got serious power in those hands. Buckley's whole game is about making you pay when you come forward. He starched Wonderboy with one punch in the third round and beat up Colby so bad they stopped it on a cut. The New Mansa is dangerous everywhere, mixing in takedowns when he needs them (went 4 for 4 against Ruziboev) and always hunting for the finish. Brady's gotta get this to the ground early and often, but closing distance on a southpaw counter puncher is sketchy business, especially after getting knocked out cold in your last fight.
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Unlock full analysisJoaquin Buckley finish map

Joaquin Buckley breakdown
Joaquin Buckley's recent form
Pace delta
+1.0 significant strikes/min
Joaquin Buckley averages 4.2 significant strikes per minute while Shavkat Rakhmonov sits at 3.3.
AI confidence
77%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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Shavkat Rakhmonov vs Joaquin Buckley odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.