AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
UFC Record Breakdown
Max Holloway defending the BMF title against Charles Oliveira is the kind of fight that makes you clear your Saturday night. Holloway's coming off that absolute banger decision over Dustin Poirier at UFC 318 in July, landing 201 strikes and proving he's still one of the most dangerous dudes at 155. That win marked his permanent move to lightweight, leaving the featherweight division behind for good. But let's not forget, he took that brutal knockout loss to Ilia Topuria back in October 2024 when he tried to reclaim the featherweight belt. Now he's locked in at lightweight with that BMF strap, and Oliveira wants it. Charles has been on a mission since getting starched by Topuria in that lightweight title fight at UFC 317. He bounced back hard, submitting Mateusz Gamrot with a rear naked choke in October, then grinding out Michael Chandler over five rounds at UFC 309.
Expect fireworks in rounds 2 and 3 when Oliveira starts hunting for the finish and Holloway's pace really takes over.
That Chandler fight showed he can control the chaos when he needs to, racking up nearly 15 minutes of control time and landing five takedowns. The guy's a submission artist who can also piece you up on the feet. His coach Diego Lima has been running camp in Sao Paulo, preparing specifically for a standup war while keeping that grappling threat ready. This is a wild stylistic puzzle. Holloway's that high volume striker who just keeps coming, throwing hundreds of strikes like he did against Poirier. Oliveira's got that Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt magic and isn't afraid to get wild in the pocket. Both guys are Orthodox, both love to finish fights, and neither one backs down.
Holloway's never been submitted in the UFC, but Oliveira's choked out some absolute killers. The interesting wrinkle here is that Holloway himself has been heaping praise on Oliveira's improved striking, showing the respect these two legends have for each other heading into fight week. The BMF title is on the line at UFC 326 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on March 7th, and both these legends are trying to cement their legacy at 155. Holloway's made it clear his ultimate goal is winning the undisputed lightweight championship, making this BMF defense a crucial step in that journey. Fans are still buzzing about that iconic knockout Holloway landed on Gaethje at UFC 300, pointing to the center of the cage with one second left. Can he keep it standing and drown Oliveira in volume, or does Charles find that neck and add another legendary submission to his resume? There's also been some fascinating talk about that mysterious 2016 injury Oliveira suffered in their first meeting, an esophagus tear that nobody could fully explain at the time and remains unsolved to this day.
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Charles Oliveira finish map

Charles Oliveira breakdown
Charles Oliveira's recent form
Max Holloway defending the BMF title against Charles Oliveira is the kind of fight that makes you clear your Saturday night. Holloway's coming off that absolute banger decision over Dustin Poirier at UFC 318 in July, landing 201 strikes and proving he's still one of the most dangerous dudes at 155. That win marked his permanent move to lightweight, leaving the featherweight division behind for good. But let's not forget, he took that brutal knockout loss to Ilia Topuria back in October 2024 when he tried to reclaim the featherweight belt. Now he's locked in at lightweight with that BMF strap, and Oliveira wants it. Charles has been on a mission since getting starched by Topuria in that lightweight title fight at UFC 317. He bounced back hard, submitting Mateusz Gamrot with a rear naked choke in October, then grinding out Michael Chandler over five rounds at UFC 309.
Expect fireworks in rounds 2 and 3 when Oliveira starts hunting for the finish and Holloway's pace really takes over.
That Chandler fight showed he can control the chaos when he needs to, racking up nearly 15 minutes of control time and landing five takedowns. The guy's a submission artist who can also piece you up on the feet. His coach Diego Lima has been running camp in Sao Paulo, preparing specifically for a standup war while keeping that grappling threat ready. This is a wild stylistic puzzle. Holloway's that high volume striker who just keeps coming, throwing hundreds of strikes like he did against Poirier. Oliveira's got that Brazilian jiu jitsu black belt magic and isn't afraid to get wild in the pocket. Both guys are Orthodox, both love to finish fights, and neither one backs down.
Holloway's never been submitted in the UFC, but Oliveira's choked out some absolute killers. The interesting wrinkle here is that Holloway himself has been heaping praise on Oliveira's improved striking, showing the respect these two legends have for each other heading into fight week. The BMF title is on the line at UFC 326 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on March 7th, and both these legends are trying to cement their legacy at 155. Holloway's made it clear his ultimate goal is winning the undisputed lightweight championship, making this BMF defense a crucial step in that journey. Fans are still buzzing about that iconic knockout Holloway landed on Gaethje at UFC 300, pointing to the center of the cage with one second left. Can he keep it standing and drown Oliveira in volume, or does Charles find that neck and add another legendary submission to his resume? There's also been some fascinating talk about that mysterious 2016 injury Oliveira suffered in their first meeting, an esophagus tear that nobody could fully explain at the time and remains unsolved to this day.
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Max Holloway finish map

Max Holloway breakdown
Max Holloway's recent form
Pace delta
+3.9 significant strikes/min
Max Holloway averages 7.2 significant strikes per minute while Charles Oliveira sits at 3.4.
AI confidence
77%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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