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UFC Record Breakdown
Japan's Rei Tsuruya is bringing some serious momentum into Shanghai after that slick first round rear naked choke over Luis Gurule back in Macau. That finish was nasty, just over three minutes to get the tap. Meanwhile, Kevin Borjas has been on a rollercoaster. El Gallo Negro bounced back strong with a decision win over Andre Lima in June, but before that he got knocked out by Imanol Rodriguez in Mexico City and dropped a decision to Sumudaerji in China. The Peruvian's tough as hell but he's been taking damage.
If Tsuruya gets this to the ground early, Borjas could be in serious trouble before the second round even starts.
Here's the thing about this matchup. Tsuruya showed at UFC 303 he can put together a complete performance, landing 62 strikes at 75% accuracy against Carlos Hernandez while controlling over six minutes of cage time. That's the kind of pressure that could break Borjas, who's struggled when guys get him down. Look at his stats against Sumudaerji, zero successful takedowns and he got controlled for over three minutes. Borjas has power in his hands, we saw that when Alessandro Costa finished him from mount, but he was swinging hard trying to get out of trouble.
Tsuruya's grappling is legit scary. That submission game mixed with solid striking makes him dangerous everywhere. Borjas needs to keep this standing and make it a dog fight, but his 0 for 5 takedown defense against Sumudaerji is a red flag when facing a guy who just choked someone out in round one.
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Rei Tsuruya finish map
Rei Tsuruya breakdown
Rei Tsuruya's recent form
Japan's Rei Tsuruya is bringing some serious momentum into Shanghai after that slick first round rear naked choke over Luis Gurule back in Macau. That finish was nasty, just over three minutes to get the tap. Meanwhile, Kevin Borjas has been on a rollercoaster. El Gallo Negro bounced back strong with a decision win over Andre Lima in June, but before that he got knocked out by Imanol Rodriguez in Mexico City and dropped a decision to Sumudaerji in China. The Peruvian's tough as hell but he's been taking damage.
If Tsuruya gets this to the ground early, Borjas could be in serious trouble before the second round even starts.
Here's the thing about this matchup. Tsuruya showed at UFC 303 he can put together a complete performance, landing 62 strikes at 75% accuracy against Carlos Hernandez while controlling over six minutes of cage time. That's the kind of pressure that could break Borjas, who's struggled when guys get him down. Look at his stats against Sumudaerji, zero successful takedowns and he got controlled for over three minutes. Borjas has power in his hands, we saw that when Alessandro Costa finished him from mount, but he was swinging hard trying to get out of trouble.
Tsuruya's grappling is legit scary. That submission game mixed with solid striking makes him dangerous everywhere. Borjas needs to keep this standing and make it a dog fight, but his 0 for 5 takedown defense against Sumudaerji is a red flag when facing a guy who just choked someone out in round one.
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Kevin Borjas finish map
Kevin Borjas breakdown
Kevin Borjas's recent form
Pace delta
+1.6 significant strikes/min
Kevin Borjas averages 3.9 significant strikes per minute while Rei Tsuruya sits at 2.2.
AI confidence
89%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
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Rei Tsuruya vs Kevin Borjas odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
