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UFC Record Breakdown
Rei Tsuruya is looking to bounce back after dropping a decision to Joshua Van at UFC 313 back in March. That loss snapped some momentum, but the Japanese fighter showed he can hang with tough competition. Before that, he grinded out a win over Carlos Hernandez at UFC 303, landing 62 strikes at a crazy 75% accuracy. The guy can find his target when he's on. Jesus Aguilar comes in with a mixed bag himself.
If Aguilar's going to catch a submission, it'll likely come in rounds one or two when Tsuruya's pressing forward.
He pulled off a slick guillotine choke over Stewart Nicoll in the first round at UFC 305, finishing it from bottom guard in under three minutes. That's the kind of submission that gets people's attention. But he's dropped two of his last three, including a tough loss to Rafael Estevam in February and another to Sumudaerji just a few weeks ago at UFC 326. This matchup is all about who can impose their game. Tsuruya's been willing to wrestle, hitting 4 takedowns against Van even though his percentage wasn't great.
Aguilar throws a ton of volume, launching 237 strikes against Luis Gurule, though his accuracy sits around 35 to 40 percent. Both guys are orthodox flyweights who like to stay busy, so expect a high pace. The real question is whether Aguilar can find another submission or if Tsuruya's pressure and wrestling can grind out another decision. Both need this one badly.
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Rei Tsuruya breakdown
Rei Tsuruya's recent form
Rei Tsuruya is looking to bounce back after dropping a decision to Joshua Van at UFC 313 back in March. That loss snapped some momentum, but the Japanese fighter showed he can hang with tough competition. Before that, he grinded out a win over Carlos Hernandez at UFC 303, landing 62 strikes at a crazy 75% accuracy. The guy can find his target when he's on. Jesus Aguilar comes in with a mixed bag himself.
If Aguilar's going to catch a submission, it'll likely come in rounds one or two when Tsuruya's pressing forward.
He pulled off a slick guillotine choke over Stewart Nicoll in the first round at UFC 305, finishing it from bottom guard in under three minutes. That's the kind of submission that gets people's attention. But he's dropped two of his last three, including a tough loss to Rafael Estevam in February and another to Sumudaerji just a few weeks ago at UFC 326. This matchup is all about who can impose their game. Tsuruya's been willing to wrestle, hitting 4 takedowns against Van even though his percentage wasn't great.
Aguilar throws a ton of volume, launching 237 strikes against Luis Gurule, though his accuracy sits around 35 to 40 percent. Both guys are orthodox flyweights who like to stay busy, so expect a high pace. The real question is whether Aguilar can find another submission or if Tsuruya's pressure and wrestling can grind out another decision. Both need this one badly.
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Jesus Aguilar breakdown
Jesus Aguilar's recent form
Pace delta
+0.4 significant strikes/min
Jesus Aguilar averages 2.6 significant strikes per minute while Rei Tsuruya sits at 2.2.
AI confidence
82%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
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Rei Tsuruya vs Jesus Aguilar odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
