UFC Fight Night
Sep 26, 2026In 36 daysMeta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
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Fighter Performance Comparison

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Fighters' Core Metrics

  • Striking Volume: Alatengheili 2.8 SLpM, John Castaneda 4.4 SLpM
  • Striking Accuracy: Alatengheili 32%, John Castaneda 50%
  • Damage Avoidance: Alatengheili 5.1 abs/min, John Castaneda 4.9 abs/min
  • Takedown Accuracy: Alatengheili 43%, John Castaneda 37%
  • Takedown Defense: Alatengheili 75%, John Castaneda 73%
  • Submission Threat: Alatengheili —, John Castaneda 0.1 per 15m
Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Alatengheili
John Castaneda

Alatengheili vs John Castaneda AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Alatengheili vs John Castaneda

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Alatengheili
6-3UFC Record
KO/TKO (14%)
Decision (57%)
Losses (29%)
John Castaneda
5-4UFC Record
KO/TKO (16%)
Sub (16%)
Decision (32%)
Losses (36%)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy32%
Grappling Efficiency45%
Takedown Defense75%
Cardio & Endurance77%
Fight IQ70%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy50%
Grappling Efficiency45%
Takedown Defense73%
Cardio & Endurance75%
Fight IQ75%

Last Opponents

Alatengheili
John Castaneda

John Castaneda is stepping back into the Octagon after a rough stretch, and he needs this one bad. The Sexi Mexi has dropped two straight decisions, including a split loss to Chris Gutierrez back in April 2025 where he landed 76 strikes but couldn't convince the judges. Before that, Daniel Marcos outworked him in Louisville. Castaneda's a switch stance fighter who can put on a show when he's rolling, like when he landed 119 strikes and grabbed three takedowns beating Kyung Ho Kang at UFC 295.

Key Storylines
  • Castaneda needs to snap a two fight skid
  • Alatengheili hunting for that one shot knockout power
  • Both fighters desperate to climb back into contention
Finishing Window

If Alatengheili's gonna land that bomb, it happens early before Castaneda settles into his volume game.

Alatengheili, The Mongolian Knight, is coming off his own setback. He got outclassed by Da'Mon Blackshear in that same Kansas City card where Castaneda fought, losing a clear decision after landing just 61 of 191 strikes. But here's the thing, this dude can be dangerous. He slept Kevin Croom in 47 seconds back in 2022 with just pure power, and when he beat Kleydson Rodrigues in May 2024, he controlled the fight for over eight minutes and mixed in three takedowns.

This matchup is all about who can impose their game. Castaneda's got the volume striking and he's comfortable mixing in wrestling when he needs it. Alatengheili throws heavy but his accuracy can be sketchy, and when he's not landing that big shot, he struggles to find a rhythm. Both guys are hunting for that statement win to get back on track in a stacked bantamweight division.

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Alatengheili vs John Castaneda Stats Comparison

Age
34
34
Height
5'5" (165 cm)
5'6" (168 cm)
Weight
135 lbs (61 kg)
135 lbs (61 kg)
Reach
66" (168 cm)
71" (180 cm)
Stance
Orthodox
Switch
AI Division Rank
Status
Contender
Contender

Key Insights: Alatengheili vs John Castaneda AI Analysis

Pace delta

+1.6 significant strikes/min

John Castaneda averages 4.4 significant strikes per minute while Alatengheili sits at 2.8.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Alatengheili and John Castaneda, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Alatengheili vs John Castaneda.

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Model score and full reasoning inside

Alatengheili vs Castaneda odds

Live Polymarket odds for Alatengheili vs John Castaneda are available on this page — the chart tracks how the market has moved ahead of the fight.

Odds update automatically as Polymarket prices move, and the market link sits next to the prediction. Compare the betting odds with the AgentMMA AI pick and verified fighter stats before you weigh the matchup.

Where to watch Alatengheili vs Castaneda

Alatengheili vs John Castaneda is on the UFC Fight Night card on Sep 26, 2026 at Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States. The bout goes out inside that card on the official UFC broadcaster or streaming service for your country — UFC Fight Pass and the UFC schedule show who holds the rights where you are. AgentMMA is not a broadcaster and never hosts or links to fight streams.

There is no legal free stream of a full UFC main card in most countries — broadcaster free trials, free-to-air coverage in a handful of markets and the occasional early prelim on the UFC's official channels are the legitimate exceptions. Free here for Alatengheili vs Castaneda: the tale of the tape, verified stats, market odds and community picks.

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