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UFC Fight Night
Oct 31, 2026• In 26 daysMeta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
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Fighter Performance Comparison

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Fighters' Core Metrics

  • Striking Volume: Francis Marshall 3.4 SLpM, Gaston Bolanos 3.9 SLpM
  • Striking Accuracy: Francis Marshall 33%, Gaston Bolanos 47%
  • Damage Avoidance: Francis Marshall 4.0 abs/min, Gaston Bolanos 3.5 abs/min
  • Takedown Accuracy: Francis Marshall 45%, Gaston Bolanos 75%
  • Takedown Defense: Francis Marshall 66%, Gaston Bolanos 50%
  • Submission Threat: Francis Marshall 0.6 per 15m, Gaston Bolanos —
Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Francis Marshall
Gaston Bolanos

Francis Marshall vs Gaston Bolanos AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Francis Marshall vs Gaston Bolanos

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Francis Marshall
4-3UFC Record
KO/TKO (17%)
Sub (17%)
Decision (35%)
Losses (30%)
Gaston Bolanos
3-2UFC Record
Decision (71%)
Losses (29%)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy33%
Grappling Efficiency50%
Takedown Defense66%
Cardio & Endurance74%
Fight IQ75%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy47%
Grappling Efficiency75%
Takedown Defense50%
Cardio & Endurance79%
Fight IQ70%

Last Opponents

Francis Marshall
Gaston Bolanos

Fans are still talking about how Francis Marshall caught Erik Silva in a rear naked choke in R1. Gaston Bolanos brings a different recent result: a unanimous decision over Michael Aswell Jr. after his own submission loss. Put them together at Meta APEX, and the question is who gets to set the pace. Bolanos has won three of the five fights listed in his recent history, and every one of those wins went to the judges.

Key Storylines
  • Bolanos answered a submission loss with a June decision win
  • Marshall followed an R1 choke with another unanimous decision
  • Marshall brings the longer reach, making Bolanos work to get inside
Finishing Window

The fight could open up at their first sustained tie up, when Marshall's reach no longer keeps Bolanos at a distance.

He has had rougher nights too: Marcus McGhee stopped him with punches, and Quang Le submitted him. Marshall arrives with consecutive wins, first the choke against Silva and then a unanimous decision over Lucas Brennan, though his earlier loss to Mairon Santos came by split decision. Both fight orthodox, but Marshall is taller and has the longer reach. Bolanos has to find a way inside without lingering at the end of that reach, while Marshall needs room to make his length count.

Watch what happens when they finally tie up: Marshall has that recent submission, and Bolanos knows how quickly a rear naked choke can change a fight. Neither man is ranked, but this featured spot puts their different strengths in front of the same crowd. The first long exchange and the first scramble should tell us plenty about the kind of fight they are in.

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Francis Marshall vs Gaston Bolanos Stats Comparison

Age
27
•
34
Height
5'9" (175 cm)
•
5'7" (170 cm)
Weight
155 lbs (70 kg)
•
145 lbs (66 kg)
Reach
72" (183 cm)
•
69" (175 cm)
Stance
Orthodox
•
Orthodox
AI Division Rank
—
•
—
Status
Contender
•
Contender

Key Insights: Francis Marshall vs Gaston Bolanos AI Analysis

Pace delta

+0.5 significant strikes/min

Gaston Bolanos averages 3.9 significant strikes per minute while Francis Marshall sits at 3.4.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Francis Marshall and Gaston Bolanos, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Francis Marshall vs Gaston Bolanos.

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Model score and full reasoning inside

Marshall vs Bolanos odds

Live Polymarket odds for Francis Marshall vs Gaston Bolanos are available on this page — the chart tracks how the market has moved ahead of the fight.

Odds update automatically as Polymarket prices move, and the market link sits next to the prediction. Compare the betting odds with the AgentMMA AI pick and verified fighter stats before you weigh the matchup.

Where to watch Marshall vs Bolanos

Francis Marshall vs Gaston Bolanos is on the UFC Fight Night card on Oct 31, 2026 at Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States. The bout goes out inside that card on the official UFC broadcaster or streaming service for your country — UFC Fight Pass and the UFC schedule show who holds the rights where you are. AgentMMA is not a broadcaster and never hosts or links to fight streams.

There is no legal free stream of a full UFC main card in most countries — broadcaster free trials, free-to-air coverage in a handful of markets and the occasional early prelim on the UFC's official channels are the legitimate exceptions. Free here for Marshall vs Bolanos: the tale of the tape, verified stats, market odds and community picks.

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