UFC Fight Night
Oct 31, 2026In 72 daysMeta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
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Fighter Performance Comparison

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Fighters' Core Metrics

  • Striking Volume: Francis Marshall 3.4 SLpM, Gaston Bolanos 3.9 SLpM
  • Striking Accuracy: Francis Marshall 33%, Gaston Bolanos 47%
  • Damage Avoidance: Francis Marshall 4.0 abs/min, Gaston Bolanos 3.5 abs/min
  • Takedown Accuracy: Francis Marshall 45%, Gaston Bolanos 75%
  • Takedown Defense: Francis Marshall 66%, Gaston Bolanos 50%
  • Submission Threat: Francis Marshall 0.6 per 15m, Gaston Bolanos —
Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Francis Marshall
Gaston Bolanos

Francis Marshall vs Gaston Bolanos AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Francis Marshall vs Gaston Bolanos

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Francis Marshall
4-3UFC Record
KO/TKO (17%)
Sub (17%)
Decision (35%)
Losses (30%)
Gaston Bolanos
3-2UFC Record
Decision (71%)
Losses (29%)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy33%
Grappling Efficiency50%
Takedown Defense66%
Cardio & Endurance74%
Fight IQ75%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy47%
Grappling Efficiency75%
Takedown Defense50%
Cardio & Endurance79%
Fight IQ70%

Last Opponents

Francis Marshall
Gaston Bolanos

Gaston Bolanos is riding high after bouncing back from that brutal rear naked choke loss to Quang Le last May. The Dreamkiller went up to featherweight in June and looked sharp, taking a unanimous decision over Michael Aswell Jr. with 94 strikes landed and some slick movement. That win showed he's got options at 145, and now he's back to prove he belongs in the mix. Francis Marshall has been on a tear lately, winning three of his last four. Fire just took a unanimous decision over Lucas Brennan in April, controlling over six and a half minutes and mixing in solid grappling.

Key Storylines
  • Bolanos rebounded strong at featherweight after that submission loss
  • Marshall hunting finishes with three wins in last four fights
  • Both guys bring serious grappling but love to throw down
Finishing Window

If Marshall gets top position or Bolanos finds his range early, someone's getting hurt in rounds one or two.

Before that, he submitted Erik Silva with a rear naked choke in under 2:30 back in February. The guy's dangerous wherever the fight goes, and that split decision loss to Mairon Santos at UFC 313 is the only blemish on his recent run. This matchup is all about who can impose their game. Bolanos showed crazy striking accuracy against Cortavious Romious back in November 2024, landing 80 of 104 strikes at 77% with perfect takedowns. But Marshall's control game is nasty, and he's not afraid to hunt for the finish.

Both guys are orthodox, both from American teams, and both know a win here keeps them climbing. The big question is whether Bolanos can keep it standing and pick Marshall apart, or if Fire can drag this into deep water and make it ugly. Fans remember what happened when Marcus McGhee caught Bolanos with those punches in January 2024, so the chin is always a talking point.

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Francis Marshall vs Gaston Bolanos Stats Comparison

Age
27
33
Height
5'9" (175 cm)
5'7" (170 cm)
Weight
155 lbs (70 kg)
145 lbs (66 kg)
Reach
72" (183 cm)
69" (175 cm)
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
AI Division Rank
Status
Contender
Contender

Key Insights: Francis Marshall vs Gaston Bolanos AI Analysis

Pace delta

+0.5 significant strikes/min

Gaston Bolanos averages 3.9 significant strikes per minute while Francis Marshall sits at 3.4.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Francis Marshall and Gaston Bolanos, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Francis Marshall vs Gaston Bolanos.

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Model score and full reasoning inside

Marshall vs Bolanos odds

Live Polymarket odds for Francis Marshall vs Gaston Bolanos are available on this page — the chart tracks how the market has moved ahead of the fight.

Odds update automatically as Polymarket prices move, and the market link sits next to the prediction. Compare the betting odds with the AgentMMA AI pick and verified fighter stats before you weigh the matchup.

Where to watch Marshall vs Bolanos

Francis Marshall vs Gaston Bolanos is on the UFC Fight Night card on Oct 31, 2026 at Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States. The bout goes out inside that card on the official UFC broadcaster or streaming service for your country — UFC Fight Pass and the UFC schedule show who holds the rights where you are. AgentMMA is not a broadcaster and never hosts or links to fight streams.

There is no legal free stream of a full UFC main card in most countries — broadcaster free trials, free-to-air coverage in a handful of markets and the occasional early prelim on the UFC's official channels are the legitimate exceptions. Free here for Marshall vs Bolanos: the tale of the tape, verified stats, market odds and community picks.

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