AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
Melquizael Costa is riding some serious momentum into this one. The Brazilian just went 4-0 in his last four UFC outings, including back-to-back decision wins over Julian Erosa and Christian Rodriguez earlier this year. That guillotine choke he locked up on Andre Fili in Seattle? Nasty stuff. Costa's been grinding through the featherweight division, and fans are starting to notice this Chute Boxe product can finish fights or outwork you for three rounds.
Morgan Charriere brings a different kind of energy though. "The Last Pirate" just knocked out Nate Landwehr in Nashville back in July with a clean punch in the third round. Before that he had a tough night in London against Nathaniel Wood, dropping a decision, but he bounced back strong. When Charriere's on, he's dangerous - remember that body kick finish against Manolo Zecchini in Paris? The French crowd went absolutely wild. Here's the thing about this matchup - Costa's southpaw pressure and grappling against Charriere's orthodox striking creates some wild scrambles.
Costa's got slick submissions and isn't afraid to drag this to the mat, while Charriere's proven he can crack with power and finish fights standing. The Brazilian's been more active lately, but you can't sleep on a guy who just starched Landwehr. This feels like a real crossroads fight for both guys. Costa's trying to break into that top-15 conversation, while Charriere needs to prove that Nashville knockout wasn't a fluke after the London setback.


UFC Record Breakdown
If Charriere doesn't catch him early, Costa's pressure and grappling could take over in rounds two and three.

Melquizael Costa finish map

Melquizael Costa breakdown
Melquizael Costa is riding some serious momentum into this one. The Brazilian just went 4-0 in his last four UFC outings, including back-to-back decision wins over Julian Erosa and Christian Rodriguez earlier this year. That guillotine choke he locked up on Andre Fili in Seattle? Nasty stuff. Costa's been grinding through the featherweight division, and fans are starting to notice this Chute Boxe product can finish fights or outwork you for three rounds.
Morgan Charriere brings a different kind of energy though. "The Last Pirate" just knocked out Nate Landwehr in Nashville back in July with a clean punch in the third round. Before that he had a tough night in London against Nathaniel Wood, dropping a decision, but he bounced back strong. When Charriere's on, he's dangerous - remember that body kick finish against Manolo Zecchini in Paris? The French crowd went absolutely wild. Here's the thing about this matchup - Costa's southpaw pressure and grappling against Charriere's orthodox striking creates some wild scrambles.
Costa's got slick submissions and isn't afraid to drag this to the mat, while Charriere's proven he can crack with power and finish fights standing. The Brazilian's been more active lately, but you can't sleep on a guy who just starched Landwehr. This feels like a real crossroads fight for both guys. Costa's trying to break into that top-15 conversation, while Charriere needs to prove that Nashville knockout wasn't a fluke after the London setback.
If Charriere doesn't catch him early, Costa's pressure and grappling could take over in rounds two and three.

Morgan Charriere finish map

Morgan Charriere breakdown
Pace delta
+1.0 significant strikes/min
Melquizael Costa averages 4.4 significant strikes per minute while Morgan Charriere sits at 3.5.
AI confidence
91%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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