AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.


Third time's the charm. This twice canceled flyweight banger is finally going down at the Apex on December 13 as the UFC's final event of 2025, and both guys have something to prove after their last outings. Royval's coming off that tough loss to Joshua Van in June, a short notice fight he took when Kape pulled out of their original matchup. Kape's riding high after that nasty knockout of Asu Almabayev in March, and he's been victorious in six of his last seven UFC appearances. That's the kind of momentum you want heading into a potential title eliminator. Here's the thing about Royval: he's at his best in those long fights where the chaos takes over. That split decision win over Tatsuro Taira last October?
Went 3 for 3 on takedowns and dragged him into deep water for five rounds. Before the Van loss, he beat Brandon Moreno in Mexico City, another five round war. Raw Dawg thrives when things get weird and the rounds pile up. Kape's been on a tear though, knocking out Bruno Silva in December before that Almabayev finish. He's thrown 168 strikes in a fight and still found the knockout. That's scary volume with power behind it. Both southpaws who love to scrap, but the styles are different.
Royval's that wild card who'll fly at you with a knee like he did to Matheus Nicolau, or drag you into a submission you didn't see coming. Kape's more methodical, breaking you down with combinations before landing that one shot. His takedown defense could be the key against Royval's grappling threats. This feels like a title eliminator even if they're not saying it. Winner's right there in the mix at 125, and both guys know it's now or never. With just over a week until fight night, the anticipation is building for what should be an absolute war to close out the year.
UFC Record Breakdown
Kape comes out hot looking for the early finish, but if Royval survives the first two rounds, his cardio and submission threats could take over when Kape starts to slow.

Manel Kape finish map

Manel Kape breakdown
Third time's the charm. This twice canceled flyweight banger is finally going down at the Apex on December 13 as the UFC's final event of 2025, and both guys have something to prove after their last outings. Royval's coming off that tough loss to Joshua Van in June, a short notice fight he took when Kape pulled out of their original matchup. Kape's riding high after that nasty knockout of Asu Almabayev in March, and he's been victorious in six of his last seven UFC appearances. That's the kind of momentum you want heading into a potential title eliminator. Here's the thing about Royval: he's at his best in those long fights where the chaos takes over. That split decision win over Tatsuro Taira last October?
Went 3 for 3 on takedowns and dragged him into deep water for five rounds. Before the Van loss, he beat Brandon Moreno in Mexico City, another five round war. Raw Dawg thrives when things get weird and the rounds pile up. Kape's been on a tear though, knocking out Bruno Silva in December before that Almabayev finish. He's thrown 168 strikes in a fight and still found the knockout. That's scary volume with power behind it. Both southpaws who love to scrap, but the styles are different.
Royval's that wild card who'll fly at you with a knee like he did to Matheus Nicolau, or drag you into a submission you didn't see coming. Kape's more methodical, breaking you down with combinations before landing that one shot. His takedown defense could be the key against Royval's grappling threats. This feels like a title eliminator even if they're not saying it. Winner's right there in the mix at 125, and both guys know it's now or never. With just over a week until fight night, the anticipation is building for what should be an absolute war to close out the year.
Kape comes out hot looking for the early finish, but if Royval survives the first two rounds, his cardio and submission threats could take over when Kape starts to slow.

Brandon Royval finish map

Brandon Royval breakdown
Pace delta
+0.5 significant strikes/min
Brandon Royval averages 5.5 significant strikes per minute while Manel Kape sits at 5.0.
AI confidence
84%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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