UFC Record Breakdown
Rafa Garcia and Alexander Hernandez are both riding serious momentum into this one, and the lightweight division better pay attention. Garcia just put on a clinic in San Antonio back in September, landing those nasty elbows from side control to finish Jared Gordon in the third round. That win came after he bounced back from getting stopped by Grant Dawson last October. Hernandez has been on an absolute tear, rattling off four straight wins including back to back knockouts. He slept Chase Hooper with one punch in the first round at UFC 319, then finished Diego Ferreira on the ground in September.
This one heats up in the second round when both guys find their rhythm and someone's chin gets tested.
Here's what makes this matchup wild. Both guys are orthodox strikers who aren't afraid to get into firefights, but they've shown they can mix it up everywhere. Garcia landed 107 strikes and hit two takedowns in that Gordon fight, showing he's comfortable wherever the fight goes. Hernandez has been more of a finisher lately, but that decision win over Kurt Holobaugh showed he can grind when he needs to, controlling nearly seven minutes and hitting 80% of his takedowns. The technical battle comes down to Garcia's volume striking against Hernandez's power.
Garcia throws a ton, averaging over 50 attempts per round in his recent fights. Hernandez is more patient, waiting for that one shot to change everything. Both guys have shown they can be hurt though. Garcia got caught by Dawson's ground and pound, while Hernandez had some close calls in that split decision over Austin Hubbard.
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Alexander Hernandez finish map

Alexander Hernandez breakdown
Alexander Hernandez's recent form
Rafa Garcia and Alexander Hernandez are both riding serious momentum into this one, and the lightweight division better pay attention. Garcia just put on a clinic in San Antonio back in September, landing those nasty elbows from side control to finish Jared Gordon in the third round. That win came after he bounced back from getting stopped by Grant Dawson last October. Hernandez has been on an absolute tear, rattling off four straight wins including back to back knockouts. He slept Chase Hooper with one punch in the first round at UFC 319, then finished Diego Ferreira on the ground in September.
This one heats up in the second round when both guys find their rhythm and someone's chin gets tested.
Here's what makes this matchup wild. Both guys are orthodox strikers who aren't afraid to get into firefights, but they've shown they can mix it up everywhere. Garcia landed 107 strikes and hit two takedowns in that Gordon fight, showing he's comfortable wherever the fight goes. Hernandez has been more of a finisher lately, but that decision win over Kurt Holobaugh showed he can grind when he needs to, controlling nearly seven minutes and hitting 80% of his takedowns. The technical battle comes down to Garcia's volume striking against Hernandez's power.
Garcia throws a ton, averaging over 50 attempts per round in his recent fights. Hernandez is more patient, waiting for that one shot to change everything. Both guys have shown they can be hurt though. Garcia got caught by Dawson's ground and pound, while Hernandez had some close calls in that split decision over Austin Hubbard.
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Rafa Garcia finish map

Rafa Garcia breakdown
Rafa Garcia's recent form
Pace delta
Pace profiles are nearly identical across the official stat splits.
AI confidence
77%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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Alexander Hernandez vs Rafa Garcia odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.