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UFC Record Breakdown
This heavyweight scrap is wild because you've got two guys coming off completely different vibes. Spann just reminded everyone he's got that submission game, catching Lukasz Brzeski in a standing guillotine back in July. That was vintage Superman, making it look easy at 2:47 of the first round. Meanwhile, Buchecha just went to war with Kennedy Nzechukwu in December and walked away with a draw after three rounds of back and forth action. Before that, he dropped a decision to Martin Buday in Abu Dhabi. Here's the thing about Buchecha.
If this hits the mat in the first two rounds, someone's getting finished.
The dude's a legendary BJJ guy making the transition to MMA, and you can see it in his fights. Against Nzechukwu, he landed 47 of 66 strikes and got three takedowns, showing he's getting more comfortable mixing it up. But Spann's no joke on the ground either. That standing guillotine he hit on Brzeski? Same finish he got against Ovince Saint Preux at UFC 307. Two guillotines in his last three fights tells you everything about his grappling instincts.
The danger for Spann is getting caught on the bottom. Waldo Cortes Acosta finished him with ground and pound in March, and Bogdan Guskov did the same thing back in April 2024. If Buchecha can get this fight to the mat and establish position, things could get scary. But Superman's got that fight ending power in his squeeze, and heavyweights only need one moment.
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Ryan Spann finish map
Ryan Spann breakdown
Ryan Spann's recent form
This heavyweight scrap is wild because you've got two guys coming off completely different vibes. Spann just reminded everyone he's got that submission game, catching Lukasz Brzeski in a standing guillotine back in July. That was vintage Superman, making it look easy at 2:47 of the first round. Meanwhile, Buchecha just went to war with Kennedy Nzechukwu in December and walked away with a draw after three rounds of back and forth action. Before that, he dropped a decision to Martin Buday in Abu Dhabi. Here's the thing about Buchecha.
If this hits the mat in the first two rounds, someone's getting finished.
The dude's a legendary BJJ guy making the transition to MMA, and you can see it in his fights. Against Nzechukwu, he landed 47 of 66 strikes and got three takedowns, showing he's getting more comfortable mixing it up. But Spann's no joke on the ground either. That standing guillotine he hit on Brzeski? Same finish he got against Ovince Saint Preux at UFC 307. Two guillotines in his last three fights tells you everything about his grappling instincts.
The danger for Spann is getting caught on the bottom. Waldo Cortes Acosta finished him with ground and pound in March, and Bogdan Guskov did the same thing back in April 2024. If Buchecha can get this fight to the mat and establish position, things could get scary. But Superman's got that fight ending power in his squeeze, and heavyweights only need one moment.
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Unlock full analysisMarcus Buchecha finish map
Marcus Buchecha breakdown
Marcus Buchecha's recent form
Pace delta
+1.5 significant strikes/min
Ryan Spann averages 3.2 significant strikes per minute while Marcus Buchecha sits at 1.7.
AI confidence
91%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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Ryan Spann vs Marcus Buchecha odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
