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UFC Record Breakdown
This middleweight scrap is all about Rodolfo Vieira trying to bounce back after a brutal 2025. The Brazilian BJJ wizard got knocked out by Bo Nickal in November with a nasty head kick at UFC 322, then dropped a decision to Andre Petroski in February. That's two straight losses for a guy who used to finish people with those sick arm triangles. Meanwhile, Eric McConico is coming off his own knockout loss to Baisangur Susurkaev back in November, so both these dudes are hungry to get back in the win column. Here's the thing though. Vieira is still dangerous as hell on the mat.
If Vieira gets a takedown in the first two rounds, expect him to hunt that arm triangle he loves so much.
Remember when he submitted Armen Petrosyan in under five minutes back in 2024? Perfect takedowns, locked up that arm triangle from mount like it was nothing. He did the exact same thing to Cody Brundage in 2023. When this guy gets you down, it's a wrap. The problem is he's been struggling to get fights there lately. Against Petroski, he only landed 1 of 14 takedown attempts, and against Nickal he went 0 for 6 before getting finished.
McConico's got some pop in his hands and he's a southpaw, which could give Vieira problems on the feet. But he's also been finished by strikes twice in his last three fights. If Vieira can survive the early exchanges and drag this to the ground, his grappling is on another level. The question is whether he can actually get it there against a guy who knows that's coming.
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Rodolfo Vieira breakdown
Rodolfo Vieira's recent form
This middleweight scrap is all about Rodolfo Vieira trying to bounce back after a brutal 2025. The Brazilian BJJ wizard got knocked out by Bo Nickal in November with a nasty head kick at UFC 322, then dropped a decision to Andre Petroski in February. That's two straight losses for a guy who used to finish people with those sick arm triangles. Meanwhile, Eric McConico is coming off his own knockout loss to Baisangur Susurkaev back in November, so both these dudes are hungry to get back in the win column. Here's the thing though. Vieira is still dangerous as hell on the mat.
If Vieira gets a takedown in the first two rounds, expect him to hunt that arm triangle he loves so much.
Remember when he submitted Armen Petrosyan in under five minutes back in 2024? Perfect takedowns, locked up that arm triangle from mount like it was nothing. He did the exact same thing to Cody Brundage in 2023. When this guy gets you down, it's a wrap. The problem is he's been struggling to get fights there lately. Against Petroski, he only landed 1 of 14 takedown attempts, and against Nickal he went 0 for 6 before getting finished.
McConico's got some pop in his hands and he's a southpaw, which could give Vieira problems on the feet. But he's also been finished by strikes twice in his last three fights. If Vieira can survive the early exchanges and drag this to the ground, his grappling is on another level. The question is whether he can actually get it there against a guy who knows that's coming.
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Eric McConico breakdown
Eric McConico's recent form
Pace delta
+2.3 significant strikes/min
Rodolfo Vieira averages 3.8 significant strikes per minute while Eric McConico sits at 1.5.
AI confidence
78%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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Rodolfo Vieira vs Eric McConico odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
