UFC Record Breakdown
Montel Jackson is trying to bounce back after that split decision loss to Deiveson Figueiredo back in October, a fight that snapped his three fight win streak. Meanwhile, Raoni Barcelos is rolling right now. The Brazilian just beat Ricky Simon, Cody Garbrandt, and Payton Talbott in back to back to back decisions. That's a serious run through some legit competition, and he's looking to make it five straight. Here's what makes this one interesting. Jackson's got that southpaw speed and power.
Jackson's early power is most dangerous in round one, but if Barcelos drags him into the championship rounds, that's where the Brazilian thrives.
Remember when he slept Da'Mon Blackshear in 18 seconds? That left hand is nasty. He's also shown he can go three rounds and grind when he needs to, like that unanimous decision over Daniel Marcos where he landed 67 strikes and controlled over three minutes. But Barcelos is tough as hell and knows how to win close fights. He's been in there with killers and found ways to get the judges' nods. The matchup comes down to whether Jackson can catch Barcelos early with that speed, or if the Brazilian's pressure and durability force this into deep water.
Barcelos has that submission game too. He choked out Cristian Quinonez in the third round, so he's dangerous everywhere. Jackson needs to be sharp because Barcelos doesn't give you easy moments. This feels like a crossroads fight for both guys. Jackson wants to prove that Figueiredo loss was just a tough night in Brazil and defend his #15 ranking. Barcelos wants to keep climbing and show he belongs in the rankings conversation.
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Raoni Barcelos finish map

Raoni Barcelos breakdown
Raoni Barcelos's recent form
Montel Jackson is trying to bounce back after that split decision loss to Deiveson Figueiredo back in October, a fight that snapped his three fight win streak. Meanwhile, Raoni Barcelos is rolling right now. The Brazilian just beat Ricky Simon, Cody Garbrandt, and Payton Talbott in back to back to back decisions. That's a serious run through some legit competition, and he's looking to make it five straight. Here's what makes this one interesting. Jackson's got that southpaw speed and power.
Jackson's early power is most dangerous in round one, but if Barcelos drags him into the championship rounds, that's where the Brazilian thrives.
Remember when he slept Da'Mon Blackshear in 18 seconds? That left hand is nasty. He's also shown he can go three rounds and grind when he needs to, like that unanimous decision over Daniel Marcos where he landed 67 strikes and controlled over three minutes. But Barcelos is tough as hell and knows how to win close fights. He's been in there with killers and found ways to get the judges' nods. The matchup comes down to whether Jackson can catch Barcelos early with that speed, or if the Brazilian's pressure and durability force this into deep water.
Barcelos has that submission game too. He choked out Cristian Quinonez in the third round, so he's dangerous everywhere. Jackson needs to be sharp because Barcelos doesn't give you easy moments. This feels like a crossroads fight for both guys. Jackson wants to prove that Figueiredo loss was just a tough night in Brazil and defend his #15 ranking. Barcelos wants to keep climbing and show he belongs in the rankings conversation.
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Montel Jackson breakdown
Montel Jackson's recent form
Pace delta
+1.8 significant strikes/min
Raoni Barcelos averages 4.9 significant strikes per minute while Montel Jackson sits at 3.1.
AI confidence
78%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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Raoni Barcelos vs Montel Jackson odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.