Umar NurmagomedovvsMerab Dvalishvili

Umar's the slick technical counter-striker from that Nurmagomedov camp, mixing precision striking with nasty grappling. When they met at UFC 311, Umar landed 113 strikes but only converted 2 of 15 takedown attempts against The Machine's insane wrestling defense. The chess match here is whether Umar can solve Merab's pressure cooker style. In their first fight, Merab controlled nearly 11 minutes and just smothered him with volume. But Umar's been on a tear otherwise. That unanimous decision over Sandhagen showed he can hang in five round wars, and he's got that perfect 100% takedown rate against Almakhan. Since the title fight loss, Umar bounced back strong with a dominant win over Bautista in October, landing 81 of 105 strikes and hitting 11 of 14 takedowns.

Those adjustments are clearly being made. This would be for the bantamweight title, except there's a major wrinkle now. Merab defended twice after beating Umar, including that sick guillotine finish of O'Malley in the rematch at UFC 316. But then Petr Yan shocked the world at UFC 323 in early December, taking a unanimous decision to reclaim the belt and end Merab's reign. The Machine's coach John Wood called the loss "like waking up from a nightmare," and now the entire division landscape has shifted. The stakes are different but still massive, with both guys needing to figure out where they stand in this reshuffled bantamweight hierarchy.