AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
UFC Record Breakdown
Here's the thing: fans have been screaming for this rematch ever since Merab edged Umar by decision at UFC 311 back in January. That fight left everyone wanting more, and now there's real bad blood brewing with Merab saying Umar doesn't respect him. This is the kind of grudge match that sells itself. What makes this potential rematch so wild is the contrast in styles. Merab's that relentless cardio machine who just keeps coming. Remember when he landed 243 strikes against Sandhagen in October? The dude threw 399 total strikes and hit 20 takedowns.
Championship rounds are where Merab's cardio becomes absolutely terrifying and Umar needs to find answers before the pace breaks him.
Umar's the slick technical counter-striker from that Nurmagomedov camp, mixing precision striking with nasty grappling. When they met at UFC 311, Umar landed 113 strikes but only converted 2 of 15 takedown attempts against The Machine's insane wrestling defense. The chess match here is whether Umar can solve Merab's pressure cooker style. In their first fight, Merab controlled nearly 11 minutes and just smothered him with volume. But Umar's been on a tear otherwise. That unanimous decision over Sandhagen showed he can hang in five round wars, and he's got that perfect 100% takedown rate against Almakhan. Since the title fight loss, Umar bounced back strong with a dominant win over Bautista in October, landing 81 of 105 strikes and hitting 11 of 14 takedowns.
Those adjustments are clearly being made. This would be for the bantamweight title, except there's a major wrinkle now. Merab defended twice after beating Umar, including that sick guillotine finish of O'Malley in the rematch at UFC 316. But then Petr Yan shocked the world at UFC 323 in early December, taking a unanimous decision to reclaim the belt and end Merab's reign. The Machine's coach John Wood called the loss "like waking up from a nightmare," and now the entire division landscape has shifted. The stakes are different but still massive, with both guys needing to figure out where they stand in this reshuffled bantamweight hierarchy.
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Umar Nurmagomedov finish map

Umar Nurmagomedov breakdown
Umar Nurmagomedov's recent form
Here's the thing: fans have been screaming for this rematch ever since Merab edged Umar by decision at UFC 311 back in January. That fight left everyone wanting more, and now there's real bad blood brewing with Merab saying Umar doesn't respect him. This is the kind of grudge match that sells itself. What makes this potential rematch so wild is the contrast in styles. Merab's that relentless cardio machine who just keeps coming. Remember when he landed 243 strikes against Sandhagen in October? The dude threw 399 total strikes and hit 20 takedowns.
Championship rounds are where Merab's cardio becomes absolutely terrifying and Umar needs to find answers before the pace breaks him.
Umar's the slick technical counter-striker from that Nurmagomedov camp, mixing precision striking with nasty grappling. When they met at UFC 311, Umar landed 113 strikes but only converted 2 of 15 takedown attempts against The Machine's insane wrestling defense. The chess match here is whether Umar can solve Merab's pressure cooker style. In their first fight, Merab controlled nearly 11 minutes and just smothered him with volume. But Umar's been on a tear otherwise. That unanimous decision over Sandhagen showed he can hang in five round wars, and he's got that perfect 100% takedown rate against Almakhan. Since the title fight loss, Umar bounced back strong with a dominant win over Bautista in October, landing 81 of 105 strikes and hitting 11 of 14 takedowns.
Those adjustments are clearly being made. This would be for the bantamweight title, except there's a major wrinkle now. Merab defended twice after beating Umar, including that sick guillotine finish of O'Malley in the rematch at UFC 316. But then Petr Yan shocked the world at UFC 323 in early December, taking a unanimous decision to reclaim the belt and end Merab's reign. The Machine's coach John Wood called the loss "like waking up from a nightmare," and now the entire division landscape has shifted. The stakes are different but still massive, with both guys needing to figure out where they stand in this reshuffled bantamweight hierarchy.
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Merab Dvalishvili breakdown
Merab Dvalishvili's recent form
Pace delta
+0.5 significant strikes/min
Merab Dvalishvili averages 4.3 significant strikes per minute while Umar Nurmagomedov sits at 3.9.
AI confidence
87%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
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