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UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano
Jan 18, 2025Inglewood, California, USA
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Fighter Performance Comparison

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Fighters' Core Metrics

  • Striking Volume: Umar Nurmagomedov 3.8 SLpM, Merab Dvalishvili 4.3 SLpM
  • Striking Accuracy: Umar Nurmagomedov 56%, Merab Dvalishvili 42%
  • Damage Avoidance: Umar Nurmagomedov 1.9 abs/min, Merab Dvalishvili 2.5 abs/min
  • Takedown Accuracy: Umar Nurmagomedov 46%, Merab Dvalishvili 37%
  • Takedown Defense: Umar Nurmagomedov 79%, Merab Dvalishvili 82%
  • Submission Threat: Umar Nurmagomedov 0.2 per 15m, Merab Dvalishvili 0.3 per 15m
Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Umar Nurmagomedov
Merab Dvalishvili

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Merab Dvalishvili AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Umar Nurmagomedov vs Merab Dvalishvili

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Umar Nurmagomedov
8-2UFC Record
KO/TKO (10%)
Sub (21%)
Decision (52%)
Losses (17%)
Merab Dvalishvili
14-3UFC Record
KO/TKO (6%)
Sub (6%)
Decision (73%)
Losses (15%)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy56%
Grappling Efficiency56%
Takedown Defense79%
Cardio & Endurance78%
Fight IQ95%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy42%
Grappling Efficiency45%
Takedown Defense82%
Cardio & Endurance81%
Fight IQ90%

Last Opponents

Umar Nurmagomedov
Merab Dvalishvili

Here's the thing: fans have been screaming for this rematch ever since Merab edged Umar by decision at UFC 311 back in January. That fight left everyone wanting more, and now there's real bad blood brewing with Merab saying Umar doesn't respect him. This is the kind of grudge match that sells itself. What makes this potential rematch so wild is the contrast in styles. Merab's that relentless cardio machine who just keeps coming. Remember when he landed 243 strikes against Sandhagen in October? The dude threw 399 total strikes and hit 20 takedowns.

Key Storylines
  • Rematch everyone's been asking for since their January battle
  • Merab's relentless pressure versus Umar's technical precision
  • Bad blood brewing - respect issues fueling the fire
Finishing Window

Championship rounds are where Merab's cardio becomes absolutely terrifying and Umar needs to find answers before the pace breaks him.

Umar's the slick technical counter-striker from that Nurmagomedov camp, mixing precision striking with nasty grappling. When they met at UFC 311, Umar landed 113 strikes but only converted 2 of 15 takedown attempts against The Machine's insane wrestling defense. The chess match here is whether Umar can solve Merab's pressure cooker style. In their first fight, Merab controlled nearly 11 minutes and just smothered him with volume. But Umar's been on a tear otherwise. That unanimous decision over Sandhagen showed he can hang in five round wars, and he's got that perfect 100% takedown rate against Almakhan. Since the title fight loss, Umar bounced back strong with a dominant win over Bautista in October, landing 81 of 105 strikes and hitting 11 of 14 takedowns.

Those adjustments are clearly being made. This would be for the bantamweight title, except there's a major wrinkle now. Merab defended twice after beating Umar, including that sick guillotine finish of O'Malley in the rematch at UFC 316. But then Petr Yan shocked the world at UFC 323 in early December, taking a unanimous decision to reclaim the belt and end Merab's reign. The Machine's coach John Wood called the loss "like waking up from a nightmare," and now the entire division landscape has shifted. The stakes are different but still massive, with both guys needing to figure out where they stand in this reshuffled bantamweight hierarchy.

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1 fight between them

  1. UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025

    Merab Dvalishvili defeated Umar Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision at UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano on January 18, 2025 in Inglewood, California, USA.

    DEC48-47, 49-46, 48-47

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Merab Dvalishvili Stats Comparison

Age
30
•
35
Height
5'8" (173 cm)
•
5'6" (168 cm)
Weight
135 lbs (61 kg)
•
135 lbs (61 kg)
Reach
69" (175 cm)
•
68" (173 cm)
Stance
Orthodox
•
Orthodox
AI Division Rank
—
•
—
Status
Contender
•
Contender

Key Insights: Umar Nurmagomedov vs Merab Dvalishvili AI Analysis

Pace delta

+0.6 significant strikes/min

Merab Dvalishvili averages 4.3 significant strikes per minute while Umar Nurmagomedov sits at 3.8.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Merab Dvalishvili stats: last 5 UFC fights vs career

How each fighter's last five UFC fights compare with their full UFC career.

Umar Nurmagomedov
MetricLast 5UFC career
Record3-2-08-2-0
Wins inside the distance0 (0%)3 (38%)
KO/TKO wins01
Submission wins02
Average fight time17:2213:20
Total strikes landed per min5.106.04
Takedowns landed per 15 min3.633.94
Control time per 15 min4:135:45
Merab Dvalishvili
MetricLast 5UFC career
Record4-1-014-3-0
Wins inside the distance1 (25%)2 (14%)
KO/TKO wins01
Submission wins11
Average fight time22:5617:36
Total strikes landed per min7.819.17
Takedowns landed per 15 min5.235.97
Control time per 15 min4:265:23

UFC bouts only, as of October 19, 2026. Per-minute rates use only bouts with round-by-round stats: Umar Nurmagomedov 10/10, Merab Dvalishvili 17/17.

Umar Nurmagomedov and Merab Dvalishvili: common opponents

UFC opponents both fighters have faced, with each result. Styles and timing change, so read these as context, not proof.

OpponentUmar NurmagomedovMerab Dvalishvili
Cory SandhagenWin Decision – Unanimous · Aug 2024Win Decision – Unanimous · Oct 2025

Previous meetings

  • Umar Nurmagomedov: Loss Decision – Unanimous · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 2025

Umar Nurmagomedov: last 5 UFC fights

  1. LossSong YadongKO/TKO, R2· UFC Fight Night: Nurmagomedov vs. Song · Aug 2026
  2. WinDeiveson FigueiredoDecision – Unanimous· UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · Jan 2026
  3. WinMario BautistaDecision – Unanimous· UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · Oct 2025
  4. LossMerab DvalishviliDecision – Unanimous· UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 2025
  5. WinCory SandhagenDecision – Unanimous· UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · Aug 2024

Merab Dvalishvili: last 5 UFC fights

  1. LossPetr YanDecision – Unanimous· UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · Dec 2025
  2. WinCory SandhagenDecision – Unanimous· UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · Oct 2025
  3. WinSean O'MalleySubmission, R3· UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 2025
  4. WinUmar NurmagomedovDecision – Unanimous· UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 2025
  5. WinSean O'MalleyDecision – Unanimous· UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · Sep 2024

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Umar Nurmagomedov and Merab Dvalishvili, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Umar Nurmagomedov vs Merab Dvalishvili.

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Model score and full reasoning inside

Nurmagomedov vs Dvalishvili odds

When Polymarket opens a market for Umar Nurmagomedov vs Merab Dvalishvili, live odds and their price history appear on this page.

Until odds are live, explore the AI prediction and verified fighter stats — the page updates automatically once the betting market opens.

Where to watch Nurmagomedov vs Dvalishvili

Umar Nurmagomedov vs Merab Dvalishvili is on the UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano card on Jan 18, 2025 at Inglewood, California, USA. The bout goes out inside that card on the official UFC broadcaster or streaming service for your country — UFC Fight Pass and the UFC schedule show who holds the rights where you are. AgentMMA is not a broadcaster and never hosts or links to fight streams.

There is no legal free stream of a full UFC main card in most countries — broadcaster free trials, free-to-air coverage in a handful of markets and the occasional early prelim on the UFC's official channels are the legitimate exceptions. Free here for Nurmagomedov vs Dvalishvili: the tale of the tape, verified stats, market odds and community picks.

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