UFC Record Breakdown
The UFC is heading back to China with a massive bantamweight showdown that's got everyone talking. Umar Nurmagomedov and Song Yadong are set to headline UFC Shanghai on August 29, and this one's a straight up title eliminator. Both guys are coming off wild momentum, and the winner is probably one fight away from a shot at the belt. Here's the thing about this matchup. Umar just bounced back from his only UFC loss, that decision against Merab Dvalishvili for the title back in January 2025. Since then, he's looked scary good, beating Mario Bautista with an insane 79% takedown rate and 11 takedowns landed, then outclassing Deiveson Figueiredo in a decision.
Expect the real damage in rounds 3 through 5 when one guy's pace starts breaking the other.
Song's been on a tear too. He submitted Figueiredo with a slick guillotine from bottom guard in May, then dropped a close decision to Sean O'Malley in January. Before that, he beat Henry Cejudo in a technical decision after an eye poke stopped the fight. The technical side is what makes this fascinating. Umar's wrestling is next level, that Nurmagomedov pressure and control time that just breaks people. Song's got nasty power and that submission game we saw against Figueiredo.
Both guys are Orthodox, both love to push the pace, and both have proven they can go five hard rounds. Song's fighting at home in China, which is huge, but Umar's got that Eagles MMA pedigree and he's been finishing fights with volume and control. This is the kind of fight that decides who's next in line. The bantamweight division is stacked right now, and whoever wins this is walking into a title conversation immediately.
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Umar Nurmagomedov finish map

Umar Nurmagomedov breakdown
Umar Nurmagomedov's recent form
The UFC is heading back to China with a massive bantamweight showdown that's got everyone talking. Umar Nurmagomedov and Song Yadong are set to headline UFC Shanghai on August 29, and this one's a straight up title eliminator. Both guys are coming off wild momentum, and the winner is probably one fight away from a shot at the belt. Here's the thing about this matchup. Umar just bounced back from his only UFC loss, that decision against Merab Dvalishvili for the title back in January 2025. Since then, he's looked scary good, beating Mario Bautista with an insane 79% takedown rate and 11 takedowns landed, then outclassing Deiveson Figueiredo in a decision.
Expect the real damage in rounds 3 through 5 when one guy's pace starts breaking the other.
Song's been on a tear too. He submitted Figueiredo with a slick guillotine from bottom guard in May, then dropped a close decision to Sean O'Malley in January. Before that, he beat Henry Cejudo in a technical decision after an eye poke stopped the fight. The technical side is what makes this fascinating. Umar's wrestling is next level, that Nurmagomedov pressure and control time that just breaks people. Song's got nasty power and that submission game we saw against Figueiredo.
Both guys are Orthodox, both love to push the pace, and both have proven they can go five hard rounds. Song's fighting at home in China, which is huge, but Umar's got that Eagles MMA pedigree and he's been finishing fights with volume and control. This is the kind of fight that decides who's next in line. The bantamweight division is stacked right now, and whoever wins this is walking into a title conversation immediately.
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Merab Dvalishvili breakdown
Merab Dvalishvili's recent form
Pace delta
+0.5 significant strikes/min
Merab Dvalishvili averages 4.3 significant strikes per minute while Umar Nurmagomedov sits at 3.9.
AI confidence
87%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
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Umar Nurmagomedov vs Merab Dvalishvili odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.