AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.


Here's the thing: fans have been screaming for this rematch ever since Merab edged Umar by decision at UFC 311 back in January. That fight left everyone wanting more, and now there's real bad blood brewing with Merab saying Umar doesn't respect him. This is the kind of grudge match that sells itself. What makes this potential rematch so wild is the contrast in styles. Merab's that relentless cardio machine who just keeps coming. Remember when he landed 243 strikes against Sandhagen in October? The dude threw 399 total strikes and hit 20 takedowns.
Umar's the slick technical counter-striker from that Nurmagomedov camp, mixing precision striking with nasty grappling. When they met at UFC 311, Umar landed 113 strikes but only converted 2 of 15 takedown attempts against The Machine's insane wrestling defense. The chess match here is whether Umar can solve Merab's pressure cooker style. In their first fight, Merab controlled nearly 11 minutes and just smothered him with volume. But Umar's been on a tear otherwise. That unanimous decision over Sandhagen showed he can hang in five round wars, and he's got that perfect 100% takedown rate against Almakhan. Since the title fight loss, Umar bounced back strong with a dominant win over Bautista in October, landing 81 of 105 strikes and hitting 11 of 14 takedowns.
Those adjustments are clearly being made. This would be for the bantamweight title, which makes it massive. Merab's defended twice since beating Umar, including that sick guillotine finish of O'Malley in the rematch at UFC 316. The Machine has been on an absolute tear through the division, proving that first win over Umar wasn't a fluke. The stakes couldn't be higher for both guys, with Umar needing to prove he can crack the code and Merab looking to cement his legacy as the division's most dominant champion.
UFC Record Breakdown
Championship rounds are where Merab's cardio becomes absolutely terrifying and Umar needs to find answers before the pace breaks him.

Umar Nurmagomedov finish map

Umar Nurmagomedov breakdown
Here's the thing: fans have been screaming for this rematch ever since Merab edged Umar by decision at UFC 311 back in January. That fight left everyone wanting more, and now there's real bad blood brewing with Merab saying Umar doesn't respect him. This is the kind of grudge match that sells itself. What makes this potential rematch so wild is the contrast in styles. Merab's that relentless cardio machine who just keeps coming. Remember when he landed 243 strikes against Sandhagen in October? The dude threw 399 total strikes and hit 20 takedowns.
Umar's the slick technical counter-striker from that Nurmagomedov camp, mixing precision striking with nasty grappling. When they met at UFC 311, Umar landed 113 strikes but only converted 2 of 15 takedown attempts against The Machine's insane wrestling defense. The chess match here is whether Umar can solve Merab's pressure cooker style. In their first fight, Merab controlled nearly 11 minutes and just smothered him with volume. But Umar's been on a tear otherwise. That unanimous decision over Sandhagen showed he can hang in five round wars, and he's got that perfect 100% takedown rate against Almakhan. Since the title fight loss, Umar bounced back strong with a dominant win over Bautista in October, landing 81 of 105 strikes and hitting 11 of 14 takedowns.
Those adjustments are clearly being made. This would be for the bantamweight title, which makes it massive. Merab's defended twice since beating Umar, including that sick guillotine finish of O'Malley in the rematch at UFC 316. The Machine has been on an absolute tear through the division, proving that first win over Umar wasn't a fluke. The stakes couldn't be higher for both guys, with Umar needing to prove he can crack the code and Merab looking to cement his legacy as the division's most dominant champion.
Championship rounds are where Merab's cardio becomes absolutely terrifying and Umar needs to find answers before the pace breaks him.

Merab Dvalishvili finish map

Merab Dvalishvili breakdown
Pace delta
+0.3 significant strikes/min
Merab Dvalishvili averages 4.3 significant strikes per minute while Umar Nurmagomedov sits at 4.1.
AI confidence
87%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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