AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
Edson Barboza's back at lightweight after a rough stretch at featherweight, and honestly, it's about damn time. The Brazilian legend just dropped a decision to Drakkar Klose at UFC 319 in August, but that was his first fight back at 155 in years. Before that, he was grinding it out at featherweight where he went 2-2, including that nasty flying knee knockout of Billy Quarantillo that reminded everyone why he's so dangerous. Now he's looking to rebuild at his natural weight class. Jalin Turner's in a weird spot though.
The Tarantula is riding a brutal three-fight skid, and each loss stings worse than the last. He got caught in a triangle choke by Ignacio Bahamondes at UFC 313, then got finished by Renato Moicano at UFC 300 when Renato mounted him and poured it on. Before that, he had close split decision losses to Dan Hooker and Mateusz Gamrot, so it's not like he's getting blown out every time. But losses are losses, and Turner needs a win bad. Here's the thing about this matchup - Barboza's still got those legendary leg kicks and slick striking, but he's 39 years old now.
Turner's got the reach and youth advantage at 30, plus he's shown he can hang with top guys even in losses. The question is whether Turner's confidence is shot after three straight Ls, or if he's hungry enough to put it all together against a veteran who might be slowing down. This feels like a crossroads fight for both guys. Barboza's trying to prove he's still got something left in the tank at lightweight, while Turner desperately needs to stop the bleeding before he falls out of relevance completely.


UFC Record Breakdown
If Barboza's going to land that fight-ending leg kick or knee, it'll come early before Turner can pressure him and test that 39-year-old gas tank.

Jalin Turner finish map

Jalin Turner breakdown
Edson Barboza's back at lightweight after a rough stretch at featherweight, and honestly, it's about damn time. The Brazilian legend just dropped a decision to Drakkar Klose at UFC 319 in August, but that was his first fight back at 155 in years. Before that, he was grinding it out at featherweight where he went 2-2, including that nasty flying knee knockout of Billy Quarantillo that reminded everyone why he's so dangerous. Now he's looking to rebuild at his natural weight class. Jalin Turner's in a weird spot though.
The Tarantula is riding a brutal three-fight skid, and each loss stings worse than the last. He got caught in a triangle choke by Ignacio Bahamondes at UFC 313, then got finished by Renato Moicano at UFC 300 when Renato mounted him and poured it on. Before that, he had close split decision losses to Dan Hooker and Mateusz Gamrot, so it's not like he's getting blown out every time. But losses are losses, and Turner needs a win bad. Here's the thing about this matchup - Barboza's still got those legendary leg kicks and slick striking, but he's 39 years old now.
Turner's got the reach and youth advantage at 30, plus he's shown he can hang with top guys even in losses. The question is whether Turner's confidence is shot after three straight Ls, or if he's hungry enough to put it all together against a veteran who might be slowing down. This feels like a crossroads fight for both guys. Barboza's trying to prove he's still got something left in the tank at lightweight, while Turner desperately needs to stop the bleeding before he falls out of relevance completely.
If Barboza's going to land that fight-ending leg kick or knee, it'll come early before Turner can pressure him and test that 39-year-old gas tank.

Edson Barboza finish map

Edson Barboza breakdown
Pace delta
+1.4 significant strikes/min
Jalin Turner averages 5.5 significant strikes per minute while Edson Barboza sits at 4.1.
AI confidence
77%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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