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UFC Record Breakdown
Cory Sandhagen and Mario Bautista are both coming off tough losses to Umar Nurmagomedov, but they took completely different paths to get there. Sandhagen went five hard rounds in a title eliminator back in August 2024, then bounced back with a nasty knee injury finish over Deiveson Figueiredo before dropping a decision to Merab Dvalishvili in his title shot. Bautista got shut down by Umar in three rounds last October but came back strong, submitting Vinicius Oliveira with a rear naked choke in February. Both guys are switch stance fighters out of elite camps, and both need this win badly to stay in the top ten conversation. Here's the thing about Sandhagen.
If Bautista gets inside and finds his rhythm in rounds two or three, that's when the grappling exchanges could get wild and lead to a finish.
The dude is one of the most technical strikers at 135, with slick movement and those long, rangy strikes that give everyone problems. He landed 149 strikes against Merab even in a losing effort and has been breaking down striking techniques on social media lately, showing he's still deep in the game mentally. Bautista is no slouch either, landing 173 strikes in his win over Patchy Mix and showing serious volume. He's also got that grappling threat, hitting five takedowns and getting the finish against Oliveira. The matchup comes down to whether Bautista can close the distance and make it ugly, or if Sandhagen can keep him at the end of those long strikes.
Sandhagen's fought the absolute best in the division, going five rounds multiple times. Bautista's been on a tear with four straight wins before the Umar loss, including that wild split decision over Jose Aldo. Both guys know exactly what's at stake here.
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Cory Sandhagen breakdown
Cory Sandhagen's recent form
Cory Sandhagen and Mario Bautista are both coming off tough losses to Umar Nurmagomedov, but they took completely different paths to get there. Sandhagen went five hard rounds in a title eliminator back in August 2024, then bounced back with a nasty knee injury finish over Deiveson Figueiredo before dropping a decision to Merab Dvalishvili in his title shot. Bautista got shut down by Umar in three rounds last October but came back strong, submitting Vinicius Oliveira with a rear naked choke in February. Both guys are switch stance fighters out of elite camps, and both need this win badly to stay in the top ten conversation. Here's the thing about Sandhagen.
If Bautista gets inside and finds his rhythm in rounds two or three, that's when the grappling exchanges could get wild and lead to a finish.
The dude is one of the most technical strikers at 135, with slick movement and those long, rangy strikes that give everyone problems. He landed 149 strikes against Merab even in a losing effort and has been breaking down striking techniques on social media lately, showing he's still deep in the game mentally. Bautista is no slouch either, landing 173 strikes in his win over Patchy Mix and showing serious volume. He's also got that grappling threat, hitting five takedowns and getting the finish against Oliveira. The matchup comes down to whether Bautista can close the distance and make it ugly, or if Sandhagen can keep him at the end of those long strikes.
Sandhagen's fought the absolute best in the division, going five rounds multiple times. Bautista's been on a tear with four straight wins before the Umar loss, including that wild split decision over Jose Aldo. Both guys know exactly what's at stake here.
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Mario Bautista finish map
Mario Bautista breakdown
Mario Bautista's recent form
Pace delta
+0.4 significant strikes/min
Mario Bautista averages 5.3 significant strikes per minute while Cory Sandhagen sits at 4.9.
AI confidence
77%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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Cory Sandhagen vs Mario Bautista odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
