AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.


This is the fight everyone's been fantasy booking since Topuria moved up to lightweight and starched Charles Oliveira in the first round back in June. Arman just put on a clinic against Dan Hooker in Qatar, submitting him with a nasty arm triangle in round two, and immediately called out El Matador. The timing's gotten complicated though. Topuria announced he won't fight in Q1 2026 for personal reasons, and Arman's already been skipped over for an interim title fight despite being the clear #1 contender. The UFC's lightweight title picture is a mess right now, and Arman's not happy about it. Here's what makes this matchup so sick: you've got Topuria's scary power and precision boxing against Arman's relentless wrestling and cardio for days.
Ilia's knocked out legends like Volkanovski, Holloway, and Oliveira, all by punch. Meanwhile, Arman's been grinding through the lightweight division, beating guys like Beneil Dariush in 64 seconds and going to war with Charles Oliveira at UFC 300. Both dudes are Orthodox, both train at elite camps, but their paths to victory couldn't be more different. The big question is whether Arman can get this fight to the mat and keep it there. He hit 7 takedowns against Damir Ismagulov and controlled Joaquim Silva for over 9 minutes before finishing him. But Topuria's takedown defense looked perfect against Holloway, stuffing both attempts, and his counter-striking is lethal.
Can Arman survive those early rounds when Ilia's hunting for the knockout, or will his pressure and wrestling break the champ? This would be for the lightweight title, and it's the kind of fight that defines legacies. Topuria's trying to cement himself as a two division champ, while Arman's been knocking on the door forever. Arman's confident he can beat Topuria "so easy" and says there's "nothing personal" against the champion, but he's clearly frustrated with how the UFC's handling the lightweight title picture. With Topuria sidelined until at least spring 2026, Arman's exploring other options to stay active and relevant.
UFC Record Breakdown
If Arman survives the first two rounds, his cardio and grappling could take over, but Topuria's shown he can end it at any moment.

Ilia Topuria finish map

Ilia Topuria breakdown
This is the fight everyone's been fantasy booking since Topuria moved up to lightweight and starched Charles Oliveira in the first round back in June. Arman just put on a clinic against Dan Hooker in Qatar, submitting him with a nasty arm triangle in round two, and immediately called out El Matador. The timing's gotten complicated though. Topuria announced he won't fight in Q1 2026 for personal reasons, and Arman's already been skipped over for an interim title fight despite being the clear #1 contender. The UFC's lightweight title picture is a mess right now, and Arman's not happy about it. Here's what makes this matchup so sick: you've got Topuria's scary power and precision boxing against Arman's relentless wrestling and cardio for days.
Ilia's knocked out legends like Volkanovski, Holloway, and Oliveira, all by punch. Meanwhile, Arman's been grinding through the lightweight division, beating guys like Beneil Dariush in 64 seconds and going to war with Charles Oliveira at UFC 300. Both dudes are Orthodox, both train at elite camps, but their paths to victory couldn't be more different. The big question is whether Arman can get this fight to the mat and keep it there. He hit 7 takedowns against Damir Ismagulov and controlled Joaquim Silva for over 9 minutes before finishing him. But Topuria's takedown defense looked perfect against Holloway, stuffing both attempts, and his counter-striking is lethal.
Can Arman survive those early rounds when Ilia's hunting for the knockout, or will his pressure and wrestling break the champ? This would be for the lightweight title, and it's the kind of fight that defines legacies. Topuria's trying to cement himself as a two division champ, while Arman's been knocking on the door forever. Arman's confident he can beat Topuria "so easy" and says there's "nothing personal" against the champion, but he's clearly frustrated with how the UFC's handling the lightweight title picture. With Topuria sidelined until at least spring 2026, Arman's exploring other options to stay active and relevant.
If Arman survives the first two rounds, his cardio and grappling could take over, but Topuria's shown he can end it at any moment.

Arman Tsarukyan finish map

Arman Tsarukyan breakdown
Pace delta
+1.0 significant strikes/min
Ilia Topuria averages 4.8 significant strikes per minute while Arman Tsarukyan sits at 3.9.
AI confidence
90%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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