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This is one of those fights that just feels wrong to watch. Arman Tsarukyan is a legit title contender on a tear, coming off that slick arm triangle over Dan Hooker back in November and that split decision war with Charles Oliveira at UFC 300. Meanwhile, Tony Ferguson is on a brutal eight fight losing streak that's painful to even talk about. El Cucuy hasn't won since 2019, and his last few outings have been rough. He got submitted by Michael Chiesa at welterweight, lost a decision to Paddy Pimblett, and got caught in an arm triangle by Bobby Green.
If Arman gets top position, this could end quickly with ground and pound or a submission.
That front kick knockout from Chandler back in 2022 still stings to think about. Arman's been on a completely different trajectory. He starched Beneil Dariush in 64 seconds, dominated Joaquim Silva with over nine minutes of control time, and outgrappled Damir Ismagulov for three rounds. The dude's striking accuracy sits around 77 to 78 percent in his recent wins, and his grappling is suffocating. Tony's still got that wild, unpredictable style, but Father Time is undefeated and the skills just aren't there anymore.
The technical gap here is massive. Arman's wrestling and top control have been nasty lately. He's landing takedowns at a solid clip and knows how to finish from mount. Tony's always been tough as nails, but he's been getting caught in submissions and taking damage he can't afford at this stage. This feels like a showcase fight for Tsarukyan to stay sharp while the lightweight title picture sorts itself out.
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Ilia Topuria finish map
Ilia Topuria breakdown
Ilia Topuria's recent form
This is one of those fights that just feels wrong to watch. Arman Tsarukyan is a legit title contender on a tear, coming off that slick arm triangle over Dan Hooker back in November and that split decision war with Charles Oliveira at UFC 300. Meanwhile, Tony Ferguson is on a brutal eight fight losing streak that's painful to even talk about. El Cucuy hasn't won since 2019, and his last few outings have been rough. He got submitted by Michael Chiesa at welterweight, lost a decision to Paddy Pimblett, and got caught in an arm triangle by Bobby Green.
If Arman gets top position, this could end quickly with ground and pound or a submission.
That front kick knockout from Chandler back in 2022 still stings to think about. Arman's been on a completely different trajectory. He starched Beneil Dariush in 64 seconds, dominated Joaquim Silva with over nine minutes of control time, and outgrappled Damir Ismagulov for three rounds. The dude's striking accuracy sits around 77 to 78 percent in his recent wins, and his grappling is suffocating. Tony's still got that wild, unpredictable style, but Father Time is undefeated and the skills just aren't there anymore.
The technical gap here is massive. Arman's wrestling and top control have been nasty lately. He's landing takedowns at a solid clip and knows how to finish from mount. Tony's always been tough as nails, but he's been getting caught in submissions and taking damage he can't afford at this stage. This feels like a showcase fight for Tsarukyan to stay sharp while the lightweight title picture sorts itself out.
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Arman Tsarukyan finish map
Arman Tsarukyan breakdown
Arman Tsarukyan's recent form
Pace delta
+1.0 significant strikes/min
Ilia Topuria averages 4.8 significant strikes per minute while Arman Tsarukyan sits at 3.9.
AI confidence
90%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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Ilia Topuria vs Arman Tsarukyan odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
