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UFC Record Breakdown
Two southpaws looking to climb back into contention after some rough patches. Donte "Lock Jaw" Johnson's been on a nice little run lately, choking out Sedriques Dumas with a slick guillotine back in November, then grinding out a split decision over Cody Brundage in March. That guillotine was nasty, caught it on the ground in round two and Dumas had no choice but to tap. Meanwhile, Eric McConico just got back in the win column with a unanimous decision over Rodolfo Vieira in April, which is huge after getting knocked out by Baisangur Susurkaev and Nursulton Ruziboev in back to back fights. Those losses were brutal, both by punches to the head.
If this fight hits the second round, that's when Johnson starts hunting for the neck and McConico needs to stay sharp or risk getting caught.
Here's the thing about this matchup. Johnson's shown he can win fights multiple ways. He's got that grappling threat that keeps guys honest, went 3 for 3 on takedowns against Dumas before locking in that choke. But he can also bang, landed 84 strikes in that Brundage fight while eating some shots himself in a close one. McConico's more of a volume striker, put up 90 strikes against Susurkaev before getting caught late in round three.
The problem is he's been getting hit clean, and when you're facing a guy nicknamed Lock Jaw, that guillotine is always lurking. Both guys need this one bad. Johnson's trying to prove he belongs in the middleweight mix, while McConico's looking to string together wins and forget about those knockout losses. Whoever can impose their game first is walking out with momentum.
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Eric McConico finish map
Eric McConico breakdown
Eric McConico's recent form
Two southpaws looking to climb back into contention after some rough patches. Donte "Lock Jaw" Johnson's been on a nice little run lately, choking out Sedriques Dumas with a slick guillotine back in November, then grinding out a split decision over Cody Brundage in March. That guillotine was nasty, caught it on the ground in round two and Dumas had no choice but to tap. Meanwhile, Eric McConico just got back in the win column with a unanimous decision over Rodolfo Vieira in April, which is huge after getting knocked out by Baisangur Susurkaev and Nursulton Ruziboev in back to back fights. Those losses were brutal, both by punches to the head.
If this fight hits the second round, that's when Johnson starts hunting for the neck and McConico needs to stay sharp or risk getting caught.
Here's the thing about this matchup. Johnson's shown he can win fights multiple ways. He's got that grappling threat that keeps guys honest, went 3 for 3 on takedowns against Dumas before locking in that choke. But he can also bang, landed 84 strikes in that Brundage fight while eating some shots himself in a close one. McConico's more of a volume striker, put up 90 strikes against Susurkaev before getting caught late in round three.
The problem is he's been getting hit clean, and when you're facing a guy nicknamed Lock Jaw, that guillotine is always lurking. Both guys need this one bad. Johnson's trying to prove he belongs in the middleweight mix, while McConico's looking to string together wins and forget about those knockout losses. Whoever can impose their game first is walking out with momentum.
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Donte Johnson finish map
Donte Johnson breakdown
Donte Johnson's recent form
Pace delta
+0.7 significant strikes/min
Donte Johnson averages 3.3 significant strikes per minute while Eric McConico sits at 2.6.
AI confidence
86%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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Eric McConico vs Donte Johnson odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
