Analyzing fighters...
AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
UFC Record Breakdown
Vitor Petrino's trying to bounce back from a rough stretch, and he's doing it up at heavyweight against Steven Asplund. The Brazilian's had a wild ride lately. He was looking dangerous at light heavyweight, then Anthony Smith caught him in a guillotine in just two minutes back in May 2024. Four months later, Dustin Jacoby knocked him out in the third round. So Petrino said screw it and moved up a weight class, and honestly? It's working. He's won two straight at heavyweight, submitting Austen Lane with a rear naked choke in the first round last July, then knocking out Thomas Petersen in the third this past October in Rio.
Both guys have shown they can finish in the first two rounds, so expect fireworks early before someone finds their opening.
Asplund's the new blood here. He just made his UFC debut in December, knocking out Sean Sharaf in the second round with punches. That's literally all we've got on him in the big show, but he came in swinging and got the finish. Now he's stepping up quick to face a guy who's been around the block. Here's the thing about Petrino at heavyweight. He's looked way more comfortable with the extra weight. That submission over Lane was slick, perfect takedown and he locked it up fast.
Against Petersen, he showed he can go into the later rounds and still crack, landing that finish at 26 seconds into round three. The dude can strike and grapple, which makes him dangerous anywhere. For Asplund, this is a massive step up in competition. Going from a debut win straight into a guy with Petrino's experience and skills? That's sink or swim territory.
Premium analysis preview is ready.
Unlock full analysis
Vitor Petrino finish map
Vitor Petrino breakdown
Vitor Petrino's recent form
Vitor Petrino's trying to bounce back from a rough stretch, and he's doing it up at heavyweight against Steven Asplund. The Brazilian's had a wild ride lately. He was looking dangerous at light heavyweight, then Anthony Smith caught him in a guillotine in just two minutes back in May 2024. Four months later, Dustin Jacoby knocked him out in the third round. So Petrino said screw it and moved up a weight class, and honestly? It's working. He's won two straight at heavyweight, submitting Austen Lane with a rear naked choke in the first round last July, then knocking out Thomas Petersen in the third this past October in Rio.
Both guys have shown they can finish in the first two rounds, so expect fireworks early before someone finds their opening.
Asplund's the new blood here. He just made his UFC debut in December, knocking out Sean Sharaf in the second round with punches. That's literally all we've got on him in the big show, but he came in swinging and got the finish. Now he's stepping up quick to face a guy who's been around the block. Here's the thing about Petrino at heavyweight. He's looked way more comfortable with the extra weight. That submission over Lane was slick, perfect takedown and he locked it up fast.
Against Petersen, he showed he can go into the later rounds and still crack, landing that finish at 26 seconds into round three. The dude can strike and grapple, which makes him dangerous anywhere. For Asplund, this is a massive step up in competition. Going from a debut win straight into a guy with Petrino's experience and skills? That's sink or swim territory.
Premium analysis preview is ready.
Unlock full analysisSteven Asplund finish map
Steven Asplund breakdown
Steven Asplund's recent form
Pace delta
+17.2 significant strikes/min
Steven Asplund averages 19.9 significant strikes per minute while Vitor Petrino sits at 2.8.
AI confidence
91%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
More free UFC AI insights and fight analysis for upcoming events
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight
UFC Fight Night • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight
UFC Fight Night • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight
UFC Fight Night • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight
UFC Fight Night • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight
UFC Fight Night • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight
