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AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
UFC Record Breakdown
Well, this fight just completely fell apart. Brandon Moreno was supposed to headline in Mexico City on February 28th against Asu Almabayev, but the Kazakh fighter just pulled out with a hand injury. Posted a photo on Instagram showing his right hand in a cast, and just like that, the main event is scrambled. Now Moreno is getting Lone'er Kavanagh as a replacement opponent, pulled straight from his March 14th UFC Vegas booking. This was already a brutal situation for Moreno. He got finished by Tatsuro Taira back in December, took some nasty ground and pound from back control in round two, and was turning around in less than nine weeks to face one of the slickest grapplers in the division. The former champ even admitted before the Taira fight that he was this close to retiring from all the stress and pressure. Now he's got a completely different opponent to prepare for at home.
If Almabayev gets this to the ground early, we could see a finish in rounds one or two, but if Moreno survives the initial grappling storm, his cardio and experience could take over late.
Almabayev would have been a nightmare matchup. The Kazakh fighter just choked out Alex Perez with a guillotine back in November and has been on a tear. Before that loss to Manel Kape in March where he got caught with punches, Almabayev was looking unstoppable. He outwrestled Matheus Nicolau and completely smothered Jose Johnson with over 11 minutes of control time. His grappling is suffocating, and that's exactly what gave Moreno problems against Taira. Here's the thing though. Moreno has been in wars before and bounced back. He went the distance with Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi in back to back five rounders last year, landing 95 and 132 strikes respectively.
The former champ knows how to dig deep and perform under pressure, especially in Mexico. But coming off a finish loss and now facing a short notice replacement? That's a different kind of test entirely. The crowd at Arena CDMX is going to be insane for their guy, but can Moreno capitalize on this opponent change? Kavanagh steps in as a live underdog, and this feels like a fight where we find out if the two time Flyweight Champion has really got another title run in him or if the tank is empty. Everything is riding on one more performance in front of his people.
Brandon Moreno finish map
Brandon Moreno breakdown
Brandon Moreno's recent form
Well, this fight just completely fell apart. Brandon Moreno was supposed to headline in Mexico City on February 28th against Asu Almabayev, but the Kazakh fighter just pulled out with a hand injury. Posted a photo on Instagram showing his right hand in a cast, and just like that, the main event is scrambled. Now Moreno is getting Lone'er Kavanagh as a replacement opponent, pulled straight from his March 14th UFC Vegas booking. This was already a brutal situation for Moreno. He got finished by Tatsuro Taira back in December, took some nasty ground and pound from back control in round two, and was turning around in less than nine weeks to face one of the slickest grapplers in the division. The former champ even admitted before the Taira fight that he was this close to retiring from all the stress and pressure. Now he's got a completely different opponent to prepare for at home.
If Almabayev gets this to the ground early, we could see a finish in rounds one or two, but if Moreno survives the initial grappling storm, his cardio and experience could take over late.
Almabayev would have been a nightmare matchup. The Kazakh fighter just choked out Alex Perez with a guillotine back in November and has been on a tear. Before that loss to Manel Kape in March where he got caught with punches, Almabayev was looking unstoppable. He outwrestled Matheus Nicolau and completely smothered Jose Johnson with over 11 minutes of control time. His grappling is suffocating, and that's exactly what gave Moreno problems against Taira. Here's the thing though. Moreno has been in wars before and bounced back. He went the distance with Steve Erceg and Amir Albazi in back to back five rounders last year, landing 95 and 132 strikes respectively.
The former champ knows how to dig deep and perform under pressure, especially in Mexico. But coming off a finish loss and now facing a short notice replacement? That's a different kind of test entirely. The crowd at Arena CDMX is going to be insane for their guy, but can Moreno capitalize on this opponent change? Kavanagh steps in as a live underdog, and this feels like a fight where we find out if the two time Flyweight Champion has really got another title run in him or if the tank is empty. Everything is riding on one more performance in front of his people.
Asu Almabayev finish map
Asu Almabayev breakdown
Asu Almabayev's recent form
Pace delta
+1.7 significant strikes/min
Brandon Moreno averages 4.0 significant strikes per minute while Asu Almabayev sits at 2.3.
AI confidence
95%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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