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UFC Record Breakdown
Bekzat Almakhan is stepping back into the Octagon looking to bounce back after that tough loss to Aleksandre Topuria in November. The Turan Warrior had a sick knockout over Brad Katona back in May, catching him with a punch just 64 seconds in, but that Topuria fight showed he's still got work to do against the elite. Meanwhile, Jean Matsumoto just came off a split decision loss to Farid Basharat in February, but the Brazilian has been grinding. He's got that slick submission game, remember when he locked up that guillotine on Dan Argueta with literally one second left in round two? That was nasty. Here's the thing about this matchup.
If Almakhan doesn't get the early finish, Matsumoto's grappling takes over in rounds two and three.
Both guys are coming off losses and need this one bad. Almakhan has that power in his hands, we saw what he can do when he catches you clean. But Matsumoto is dangerous everywhere, especially if this hits the mat. He landed 7 of 10 takedowns against Rob Font and controlled over six minutes of that fight. The Brazilian's grappling is legit scary. Almakhan's biggest test was getting completely outclassed by Umar Nurmagomedov back in 2024, landing only 5 of 25 strikes.
That's the level he's trying to reach. Matsumoto has been in wars with Font and Miles Johns, going the distance in tight battles. Both guys are orthodox bantamweights who know they're a couple wins away from cracking the rankings. This is a classic prove it fight.
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Bekzat Almakhan breakdown
Bekzat Almakhan's recent form
Bekzat Almakhan is stepping back into the Octagon looking to bounce back after that tough loss to Aleksandre Topuria in November. The Turan Warrior had a sick knockout over Brad Katona back in May, catching him with a punch just 64 seconds in, but that Topuria fight showed he's still got work to do against the elite. Meanwhile, Jean Matsumoto just came off a split decision loss to Farid Basharat in February, but the Brazilian has been grinding. He's got that slick submission game, remember when he locked up that guillotine on Dan Argueta with literally one second left in round two? That was nasty. Here's the thing about this matchup.
If Almakhan doesn't get the early finish, Matsumoto's grappling takes over in rounds two and three.
Both guys are coming off losses and need this one bad. Almakhan has that power in his hands, we saw what he can do when he catches you clean. But Matsumoto is dangerous everywhere, especially if this hits the mat. He landed 7 of 10 takedowns against Rob Font and controlled over six minutes of that fight. The Brazilian's grappling is legit scary. Almakhan's biggest test was getting completely outclassed by Umar Nurmagomedov back in 2024, landing only 5 of 25 strikes.
That's the level he's trying to reach. Matsumoto has been in wars with Font and Miles Johns, going the distance in tight battles. Both guys are orthodox bantamweights who know they're a couple wins away from cracking the rankings. This is a classic prove it fight.
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Unlock full analysisJean Matsumoto finish map
Jean Matsumoto breakdown
Jean Matsumoto's recent form
Pace delta
+3.8 significant strikes/min
Jean Matsumoto averages 5.4 significant strikes per minute while Bekzat Almakhan sits at 1.6.
AI confidence
80%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
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Bekzat Almakhan vs Jean Matsumoto odds: this page includes live Polymarket odds for this matchup.
