UFC Fight Night
Oct 10, 2026In 51 daysMeta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
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Fighter Performance Comparison

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Fighters' Core Metrics

  • Striking Volume: Melissa Gatto 3.5 SLpM, Ernesta Kareckaite 7.3 SLpM
  • Striking Accuracy: Melissa Gatto 49%, Ernesta Kareckaite 42%
  • Damage Avoidance: Melissa Gatto 2.7 abs/min, Ernesta Kareckaite 6.5 abs/min
  • Takedown Accuracy: Melissa Gatto 27%, Ernesta Kareckaite 60%
  • Takedown Defense: Melissa Gatto 58%, Ernesta Kareckaite 81%
  • Submission Threat: Melissa Gatto 0.4 per 15m, Ernesta Kareckaite —
Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Melissa Gatto
Ernesta Kareckaite

Melissa Gatto vs Ernesta Kareckaite AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Melissa Gatto vs Ernesta Kareckaite

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Melissa Gatto
3-3UFC Record
KO/TKO (44%)
Decision (22%)
Losses (33%)
Ernesta Kareckaite
1-2UFC Record
Decision (60%)
Losses (40%)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy49%
Grappling Efficiency45%
Takedown Defense58%
Cardio & Endurance75%
Fight IQ75%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy42%
Grappling Efficiency60%
Takedown Defense81%
Cardio & Endurance75%
Fight IQ80%

Last Opponents

Melissa Gatto
Ernesta Kareckaite

This flyweight scrap has been brewing since August, and now it's finally going down. Ernesta "Heavy-Handed" Kareckaite brings that Lithuanian toughness against Brazil's Melissa Gatto in what should be a fun striker versus grappler battle. Both women are hungry to get back in the win column after some tough breaks. Kareckaite's had a rough stretch lately. She dropped a unanimous decision to Regina Tarin back in February at UFC Mexico City, landing 127 strikes but couldn't get it done on the scorecards.

Key Storylines
  • Kareckaite's crazy striking volume meets Gatto's finishing instincts
  • Both coming off losses and desperate for momentum
  • Brazilian's body work has ended fights before
Finishing Window

Round 2 and 3 is where Gatto typically finds her finish, but Kareckaite's pace could force a decision war.

Before that though, she pulled off a split decision win over Nicolle Caliari in January 2025, throwing over 250 strikes in a wild back and forth war. The Lithuanian has shown she can push a crazy pace and isn't afraid to stand and bang for 15 minutes. Gatto's coming off a majority decision loss to Dione Barbosa in April, where she actually showed some solid grappling with 3 takedowns and nearly five minutes of control time. But here's the thing, when Melissa gets rolling, she's dangerous as hell. Remember that body punch finish against Tamires Vidal back in May 2024?

Absolutely brutal. She's also got that body kick knockout over Sijara Eubanks from 2021, so the Brazilian knows how to put people away when she finds her spots. Both fighters are sitting on losses and need this one bad. Kareckaite's volume striking against Gatto's finishing power makes this one of those fights where someone's getting their hand raised in a big way.

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Melissa Gatto vs Ernesta Kareckaite Stats Comparison

Age
30
28
Height
5'5" (165 cm)
5'9" (175 cm)
Weight
125 lbs (57 kg)
125 lbs (57 kg)
Reach
69" (175 cm)
71" (180 cm)
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
AI Division Rank
Status
Contender
Contender

Key Insights: Melissa Gatto vs Ernesta Kareckaite AI Analysis

Pace delta

+3.8 significant strikes/min

Ernesta Kareckaite averages 7.3 significant strikes per minute while Melissa Gatto sits at 3.5.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Melissa Gatto and Ernesta Kareckaite, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Melissa Gatto vs Ernesta Kareckaite.

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Model score and full reasoning inside

Gatto vs Kareckaite odds

Live Polymarket odds for Melissa Gatto vs Ernesta Kareckaite are available on this page — the chart tracks how the market has moved ahead of the fight.

Odds update automatically as Polymarket prices move, and the market link sits next to the prediction. Compare the betting odds with the AgentMMA AI pick and verified fighter stats before you weigh the matchup.

Where to watch Gatto vs Kareckaite

Melissa Gatto vs Ernesta Kareckaite is on the UFC Fight Night card on Oct 10, 2026 at Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States. The bout goes out inside that card on the official UFC broadcaster or streaming service for your country — UFC Fight Pass and the UFC schedule show who holds the rights where you are. AgentMMA is not a broadcaster and never hosts or links to fight streams.

There is no legal free stream of a full UFC main card in most countries — broadcaster free trials, free-to-air coverage in a handful of markets and the occasional early prelim on the UFC's official channels are the legitimate exceptions. Free here for Gatto vs Kareckaite: the tale of the tape, verified stats, market odds and community picks.

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