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UFC Fight Night
Oct 10, 2026• In 5 daysMeta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
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Fighter Performance Comparison

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Fighters' Core Metrics

  • Striking Volume: Melissa Gatto 3.5 SLpM, Ernesta Kareckaite 7.3 SLpM
  • Striking Accuracy: Melissa Gatto 49%, Ernesta Kareckaite 42%
  • Damage Avoidance: Melissa Gatto 2.7 abs/min, Ernesta Kareckaite 6.5 abs/min
  • Takedown Accuracy: Melissa Gatto 27%, Ernesta Kareckaite 60%
  • Takedown Defense: Melissa Gatto 58%, Ernesta Kareckaite 81%
  • Submission Threat: Melissa Gatto 0.4 per 15m, Ernesta Kareckaite —
Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Melissa Gatto
Ernesta Kareckaite

Melissa Gatto vs Ernesta Kareckaite AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Melissa Gatto vs Ernesta Kareckaite

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Melissa Gatto
3-3UFC Record
KO/TKO (44%)
Decision (22%)
Losses (33%)
Ernesta Kareckaite
1-2UFC Record
Decision (60%)
Losses (40%)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy49%
Grappling Efficiency45%
Takedown Defense58%
Cardio & Endurance75%
Fight IQ75%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy42%
Grappling Efficiency60%
Takedown Defense81%
Cardio & Endurance75%
Fight IQ80%

Last Opponents

Melissa Gatto
Ernesta Kareckaite

Ernesta Kareckaite and Melissa Gatto both walk into this one needing to shake off a decision loss, which puts some real bite into an otherwise quiet matchup. Kareckaite last lost a unanimous decision to Regina Tarin, after taking a split decision over Nicolle Caliari. Gatto arrives after a majority decision loss to Dione Barbosa, so neither gets to show up riding the buzz of a fresh win. But remember Gatto going after the body?

Key Storylines
  • Both arrive after decision losses with a fresh start to chase
  • Gatto has twice ended fights with body shots in R3
  • Barbosa beat both, but those scorecards tell two different stories
Finishing Window

The exchanges are most likely to open up in R3, when repeated entries and exits can slow the resets and expose the body.

A body punch stopped Tamires Vidal in R3, and a body kick stopped Sijara Eubanks in R3. Those are different weapons aimed at the same spot, and they give Kareckaite something to think about whenever she sets her feet within range. Kareckaite has a 71 inch reach to Gatto's 69, and both stand orthodox, making the space between them a big part of the story. Kareckaite needs to keep that space useful with clean shots and exits, while Gatto needs to get close without giving away free hits on the way in.

If they end up tied together at the fence, watch who earns room to strike and who has to spend energy starting over. Then there's Barbosa, who also beat Kareckaite by unanimous decision. Sharing an opponent gives this fight a neat connection, but it cannot answer the real question: can Kareckaite keep her range when Gatto starts looking downstairs?

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Melissa Gatto vs Ernesta Kareckaite Stats Comparison

Age
30
•
28
Height
5'5" (165 cm)
•
5'9" (175 cm)
Weight
125 lbs (57 kg)
•
125 lbs (57 kg)
Reach
69" (175 cm)
•
71" (180 cm)
Stance
Orthodox
•
Orthodox
AI Division Rank
—
•
—
Status
Contender
•
Contender

Key Insights: Melissa Gatto vs Ernesta Kareckaite AI Analysis

Pace delta

+3.8 significant strikes/min

Ernesta Kareckaite averages 7.3 significant strikes per minute while Melissa Gatto sits at 3.5.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Melissa Gatto and Ernesta Kareckaite, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Melissa Gatto vs Ernesta Kareckaite.

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Model score and full reasoning inside

Gatto vs Kareckaite odds

Live Polymarket odds for Melissa Gatto vs Ernesta Kareckaite are available on this page — the chart tracks how the market has moved ahead of the fight.

Odds update automatically as Polymarket prices move, and the market link sits next to the prediction. Compare the betting odds with the AgentMMA AI pick and verified fighter stats before you weigh the matchup.

Where to watch Gatto vs Kareckaite

Melissa Gatto vs Ernesta Kareckaite is on the UFC Fight Night card on Oct 10, 2026 at Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States. The bout goes out inside that card on the official UFC broadcaster or streaming service for your country — UFC Fight Pass and the UFC schedule show who holds the rights where you are. AgentMMA is not a broadcaster and never hosts or links to fight streams.

There is no legal free stream of a full UFC main card in most countries — broadcaster free trials, free-to-air coverage in a handful of markets and the occasional early prelim on the UFC's official channels are the legitimate exceptions. Free here for Gatto vs Kareckaite: the tale of the tape, verified stats, market odds and community picks.

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