UFC Fight Night
Oct 10, 2026In 29 daysMeta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States
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Fighter Performance Comparison

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Fighters' Core Metrics

  • Striking Volume: Francisco Prado 4.1 SLpM, Ismael Bonfim 5.5 SLpM
  • Striking Accuracy: Francisco Prado 43%, Ismael Bonfim 54%
  • Damage Avoidance: Francisco Prado 5.0 abs/min, Ismael Bonfim 3.7 abs/min
  • Takedown Accuracy: Francisco Prado 19%, Ismael Bonfim 33%
  • Takedown Defense: Francisco Prado 50%, Ismael Bonfim 76%
  • Submission Threat: Francisco Prado 0.5 per 15m, Ismael Bonfim —
Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Francisco Prado
Ismael Bonfim

Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Francisco Prado
1-5UFC Record
KO/TKO (55%)
Losses (45%)
Ismael Bonfim
2-4UFC Record
KO/TKO (30%)
Decision (30%)
Losses (40%)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy43%
Grappling Efficiency45%
Takedown Defense50%
Cardio & Endurance70%
Fight IQ75%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy54%
Grappling Efficiency45%
Takedown Defense76%
Cardio & Endurance73%
Fight IQ80%

Last Opponents

Francisco Prado
Ismael Bonfim

Fans are looking at Francisco Prado against Ismael Bonfim and seeing two talented fighters with their backs against the wall. Prado keeps reaching decisions without getting his hand raised, while Bonfim's recent appearances have ended before the final horn. That tension should be there from the first stare. This matchup gets even more interesting when you look past the results. Both fight orthodox, Prado is the taller man, and Bonfim is the shorter fighter with the longer reach.

Key Storylines
  • Prado keeps reaching the cards but still needs his hand raised
  • Bonfim returns after another fight ended before the final horn
  • Prado is taller, but Bonfim brings the longer reach
Finishing Window

The fight is most likely to break open late in R1 or early in R2, once the reach battle and pressure have forced both men to show their defensive reactions.

Prado has proved he can keep pushing through a full fight, while Bonfim has dealt with a doctor stoppage, punches on the ground, and a D'Arce choke across his latest defeats. Here's the thing. Prado cannot hang outside and let Bonfim touch him first with that reach. He has to close space cleanly, make the exchanges physical, and stay responsible when the fight shifts toward the fence or mat. Bonfim needs room for his hands, calm reactions when Prado steps in, and a steady gas tank if this turns into another long, ugly battle.

Both camps know the other guy has something to prove, so the first mistake could change the whole mood. The real question is who can fight loose while carrying this much pressure. Prado wants to stop a run of narrow and clear scorecard losses, while Bonfim needs to show that recent early trouble does not define him.

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Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim Stats Comparison

Age
24
30
Height
5'10" (178 cm)
5'8" (173 cm)
Weight
170 lbs (77 kg)
155 lbs (70 kg)
Reach
69" (175 cm)
71" (180 cm)
Stance
Orthodox
Orthodox
AI Division Rank
Status
Contender
Contender

Key Insights: Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim AI Analysis

Pace delta

+1.4 significant strikes/min

Ismael Bonfim averages 5.5 significant strikes per minute while Francisco Prado sits at 4.1.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Francisco Prado and Ismael Bonfim, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim.

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Model score and full reasoning inside

Prado vs Bonfim odds

Live Polymarket odds for Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim are available on this page — the chart tracks how the market has moved ahead of the fight.

Odds update automatically as Polymarket prices move, and the market link sits next to the prediction. Compare the betting odds with the AgentMMA AI pick and verified fighter stats before you weigh the matchup.

Where to watch Prado vs Bonfim

Francisco Prado vs Ismael Bonfim is on the UFC Fight Night card on Oct 10, 2026 at Meta APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States. The bout goes out inside that card on the official UFC broadcaster or streaming service for your country — UFC Fight Pass and the UFC schedule show who holds the rights where you are. AgentMMA is not a broadcaster and never hosts or links to fight streams.

There is no legal free stream of a full UFC main card in most countries — broadcaster free trials, free-to-air coverage in a handful of markets and the occasional early prelim on the UFC's official channels are the legitimate exceptions. Free here for Prado vs Bonfim: the tale of the tape, verified stats, market odds and community picks.

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