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AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.
UFC Record Breakdown
Alex Morono needs this one bad. The Great White is riding a brutal three fight skid, including that first round KO loss to Carlos Leal back in March that nobody saw coming. Before that, he dropped decisions to Daniel Rodriguez and Niko Price, so the Fortis MMA vet is staring down some serious adversity. Meanwhile, Daniil Donchenko is coming off a first round KO win over Rodrigo Sezinando last September, catching him with punches at distance and getting his hand raised in under five minutes.
Donchenko's shown he can end it early with his hands, but if Morono survives the opening exchanges and starts piling up volume, this could turn into a war of attrition.
This is a classic crossroads fight. The 35 year old Morono (24-12) has way more octagon time and experience, but he's desperate to stop the bleeding. The 24 year old Donchenko (12-2) is looking to prove that September finish wasn't a fluke and make a real statement in the welterweight division. The Great White has always been a volume striker who can push a crazy pace, and when you look at his numbers against Rodriguez (91 strikes landed) and Price (111 strikes landed), the dude still brings it even in losses.
The big question is whether Morono can get back to what made him dangerous or if Donchenko's power carries over. Morono's been in there with killers like Joaquin Buckley and lived to tell about it, so his chin and toughness aren't in doubt. But confidence is everything in this sport, and losing four straight would be a nightmare scenario for a guy who's been a solid UFC staple for years. Donchenko comes in as a massive favorite at -550, which tells you how much the oddsmakers believe in his explosive striking against a veteran searching for answers.
Alex Morono finish map
Alex Morono breakdown
Alex Morono's recent form
Alex Morono needs this one bad. The Great White is riding a brutal three fight skid, including that first round KO loss to Carlos Leal back in March that nobody saw coming. Before that, he dropped decisions to Daniel Rodriguez and Niko Price, so the Fortis MMA vet is staring down some serious adversity. Meanwhile, Daniil Donchenko is coming off a first round KO win over Rodrigo Sezinando last September, catching him with punches at distance and getting his hand raised in under five minutes.
Donchenko's shown he can end it early with his hands, but if Morono survives the opening exchanges and starts piling up volume, this could turn into a war of attrition.
This is a classic crossroads fight. The 35 year old Morono (24-12) has way more octagon time and experience, but he's desperate to stop the bleeding. The 24 year old Donchenko (12-2) is looking to prove that September finish wasn't a fluke and make a real statement in the welterweight division. The Great White has always been a volume striker who can push a crazy pace, and when you look at his numbers against Rodriguez (91 strikes landed) and Price (111 strikes landed), the dude still brings it even in losses.
The big question is whether Morono can get back to what made him dangerous or if Donchenko's power carries over. Morono's been in there with killers like Joaquin Buckley and lived to tell about it, so his chin and toughness aren't in doubt. But confidence is everything in this sport, and losing four straight would be a nightmare scenario for a guy who's been a solid UFC staple for years. Donchenko comes in as a massive favorite at -550, which tells you how much the oddsmakers believe in his explosive striking against a veteran searching for answers.
Daniil Donchenko finish map
Daniil Donchenko breakdown
Daniil Donchenko's recent form
Pace delta
+3.7 significant strikes/min
Daniil Donchenko averages 8.8 significant strikes per minute while Alex Morono sits at 5.0.
AI confidence
83%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
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