AgentMMA fuses strike pace, reaction data, and grappling leverage to map the fight flow.AI analysis of striking, defense, and grappling to project the fight outcome.


This bantamweight main event is all about momentum meeting opportunity. Mario Bautista's riding a four fight win streak that includes a split decision over the legendary Jose Aldo and a dominant performance against Patchy Mix where he landed 173 strikes. But then Umar Nurmagomedov shut him down in October, handing him his first loss since 2023. Now he's looking to bounce back against Vinicius Oliveira, who's been absolutely tearing through the division with four straight wins. Oliveira's been making serious noise lately. The Brazilian just beat Said Nurmagomedov in February and took out Kyler Phillips in July, both by decision.
But everyone remembers that flying knee knockout over Benardo Sopaj back in March 2024. That finish showed he's not just a decision grinder. He's got real finishing instincts when the moment's right. Here's the thing about this matchup. Both guys are switch stance fighters who can adjust on the fly, which makes this super interesting. Bautista's volume striking is nasty when he gets rolling, but Oliveira's been proving he can hang with anyone in the scrambles and keep a high pace for three rounds.
The Brazilian's takedown game gives him options Bautista hasn't always had to deal with. This is a huge fight for both guys. Bautista needs to prove that Umar loss was just a bad night against an elite opponent. Oliveira's trying to break into that top ten and show he belongs with the division's best. Winner gets a serious step up in competition.
UFC Record Breakdown
Round three is where Oliveira's found his finishes before, and Bautista's cardio could be the difference if it stays standing.

Vinicius Oliveira finish map

Vinicius Oliveira breakdown
This bantamweight main event is all about momentum meeting opportunity. Mario Bautista's riding a four fight win streak that includes a split decision over the legendary Jose Aldo and a dominant performance against Patchy Mix where he landed 173 strikes. But then Umar Nurmagomedov shut him down in October, handing him his first loss since 2023. Now he's looking to bounce back against Vinicius Oliveira, who's been absolutely tearing through the division with four straight wins. Oliveira's been making serious noise lately. The Brazilian just beat Said Nurmagomedov in February and took out Kyler Phillips in July, both by decision.
But everyone remembers that flying knee knockout over Benardo Sopaj back in March 2024. That finish showed he's not just a decision grinder. He's got real finishing instincts when the moment's right. Here's the thing about this matchup. Both guys are switch stance fighters who can adjust on the fly, which makes this super interesting. Bautista's volume striking is nasty when he gets rolling, but Oliveira's been proving he can hang with anyone in the scrambles and keep a high pace for three rounds.
The Brazilian's takedown game gives him options Bautista hasn't always had to deal with. This is a huge fight for both guys. Bautista needs to prove that Umar loss was just a bad night against an elite opponent. Oliveira's trying to break into that top ten and show he belongs with the division's best. Winner gets a serious step up in competition.
Round three is where Oliveira's found his finishes before, and Bautista's cardio could be the difference if it stays standing.

Mario Bautista finish map

Mario Bautista breakdown
Pace delta
+0.3 significant strikes/min
Mario Bautista averages 5.6 significant strikes per minute while Vinicius Oliveira sits at 5.3.
AI confidence
81%
Probability weighting from the AgentMMA simulator.
Finish radar
High-conviction finish window detected. Unlock for full breakdown.
More free UFC AI insights and fight analysis for upcoming events
UFC 324 • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight

UFC 325 • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight

UFC 324 • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight

UFC 324 • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight

UFC 324 • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight

UFC Fight Night • AI Insight Available
View UFC AI insight
