Vinicius Oliveira vs Mario Bautista

UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira

Feb 7, 2026Las Vegas, Nevada, USA

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Vinicius Oliveira

Record: 24-4-0

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Mario Bautista

Record: 18-3-0

Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Vinicius Oliveira

Mario Bautista

Performance Snapshot

Fighters' Core Metrics

Vinicius Oliveira

Mario Bautista

Vinicius Oliveira vs Mario Bautista AI Insight & Prediction: Expert Analysis & Fight Breakdown

AgentMMA AI Breakdown

How AgentMMA breaks down Vinicius Oliveira vs Mario Bautista

Finish Maps

UFC Record Breakdown

Vinicius Oliveira

KO/TKO (34%)

Decision (51%)

Losses (14%)

Mario Bautista

KO/TKO (7%)

Sub (28%)

Decision (49%)

Losses (17%)

Performance Stats

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy47%

Grappling Efficiency45%

Takedown Defense71%

Cardio & Endurance80%

Fight IQ85%

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy50%

Grappling Efficiency52%

Takedown Defense57%

Cardio & Endurance77%

Fight IQ80%

Last Opponents

Vinicius Oliveira

Mario Bautista

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From opening bell, Vinicius Oliveira can dictate pace in the pocket, averaging 5.4 significant strikes per minute while Mario Bautista looks to settle behind counters. Expect the red corner to test range with layered entries that neutralize the Switch stance angles.

Key Storylines

First three minutes decide who dictates range and tempo.
Red corner pressure vs blue corner counter traps will frame the striking narrative.
Premium analysis examines the momentum swings most likely to decide control.

Finishing Window

Premium analysis covers whether a credible finish window emerges from the pace, striking, and grappling matchup.

The premium breakdown compares how each fighter can win the pace and position battle, then reveals the selected verdict and supporting evidence after access is unlocked.

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Streak:1

Vinicius Oliveira

Vinicius Oliveira finish map

UFC Record Breakdown

KO/TKO (34%)

Decision (51%)

Losses (14%)

Vinicius Oliveira breakdown

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy47%

Grappling Efficiency45%

Takedown Defense71%

Cardio & Endurance80%

Fight IQ85%

Vinicius Oliveira's recent form

Key Storylines

First three minutes decide who dictates range and tempo.
Red corner pressure vs blue corner counter traps will frame the striking narrative.
Premium analysis examines the momentum swings most likely to decide control.

Finishing Window

Premium analysis covers whether a credible finish window emerges from the pace, striking, and grappling matchup.

The premium breakdown compares the pace and position battle before revealing the selected verdict and supporting evidence. Mario Bautista must answer with clinch resets and smart cage craft to stay competitive.

Vinicius Oliveira brings the more polished entries (43%) while Mario Bautista relies on defensive frames (57%).

The premium breakdown assesses late-round cardio, composure and volatility before assigning an edge. Unlock it to see which verified factors carry the most weight in this matchup.

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Streak:2

Mario Bautista

Mario Bautista finish map

UFC Record Breakdown

KO/TKO (7%)

Sub (28%)

Decision (49%)

Losses (17%)

Mario Bautista breakdown

Performance Breakdown

Striking Accuracy50%

Grappling Efficiency52%

Takedown Defense57%

Cardio & Endurance77%

Fight IQ80%

Mario Bautista's recent form

Vinicius Oliveira vs Mario Bautista Stats Comparison

Age

•

Height

5'9" (175 cm)

•

5'9" (175 cm)

Weight

145 lbs (66 kg)

•

135 lbs (61 kg)

Reach

70" (178 cm)

•

69" (175 cm)

Stance

Switch

•

Switch

AI Division Rank

—

•

—

Status

Contender

•

Contender

Key Insights: Vinicius Oliveira vs Mario Bautista AI Analysis

Pace delta

Pace profiles are nearly identical across the official stat splits.

Finish radar

The model flags a possible finish window. Unlock the supporting breakdown.

Vinicius Oliveira vs Mario Bautista stats: last 5 UFC fights vs career

How each fighter's last five UFC fights compare with their full UFC career.

Vinicius Oliveira
Metric	Last 5	UFC career
Record	4-1-0	5-1-0
Wins inside the distance	1 (25%)	2 (40%)
KO/TKO wins	1	2
Submission wins	0	0
Average fight time	12:56	13:14
Total strikes landed per min	6.24	6.14
Takedowns landed per 15 min	0.00	0.87
Control time per 15 min	1:28	1:33

Mario Bautista
Metric	Last 5	UFC career
Record	4-1-0	12-3-0
Wins inside the distance	1 (25%)	5 (42%)
KO/TKO wins	0	1
Submission wins	1	4
Average fight time	13:57	10:26
Total strikes landed per min	6.41	7.49
Takedowns landed per 15 min	1.89	2.58
Control time per 15 min	2:12	3:34

UFC bouts only, as of October 18, 2026. Per-minute rates use only bouts with round-by-round stats: Vinicius Oliveira 3/6, Mario Bautista 8/15.

Vinicius Oliveira and Mario Bautista: common opponents

UFC opponents both fighters have faced, with each result. Styles and timing change, so read these as context, not proof.

Opponent	Vinicius Oliveira	Mario Bautista
Ricky Simon	Win Decision – Unanimous · Jun 2024	Win Decision – Unanimous · Jan 2024

Previous meetings

Vinicius Oliveira: Loss Submission, R2 · UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 2026

Vinicius Oliveira: last 5 UFC fights

WinAndre FiliKO/TKO, R2· UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · Jun 2026
LossMario BautistaSubmission, R2· UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 2026
WinKyler PhillipsDecision – Unanimous· UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 2025
WinSaid NurmagomedovDecision – Unanimous· UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 2025
WinRicky SimonDecision – Unanimous· UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 2024

Mario Bautista: last 5 UFC fights

WinCory SandhagenDecision – Unanimous· UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · Jul 2026
WinVinicius OliveiraSubmission, R2· UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · Feb 2026
LossUmar NurmagomedovDecision – Unanimous· UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · Oct 2025
WinPatchy MixDecision – Unanimous· UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · Jun 2025
WinJose AldoDecision – Split· UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 2024

AgentMMA layers opponent strength, strike tempo, and grappling leverage to forecast this fight. Compare Vinicius Oliveira and Mario Bautista, then unlock the round-by-round analysis and key factors.

AI War Room Preview

AgentMMA's model flagged a matchup edge. Unlock the full breakdown, model score, and supporting factors for Vinicius Oliveira vs Mario Bautista.

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Model score and full reasoning inside

Oliveira vs Bautista odds

When Polymarket opens a market for Vinicius Oliveira vs Mario Bautista, live odds and their price history appear on this page.

Until odds are live, explore the AI prediction and verified fighter stats — the page updates automatically once the betting market opens.

Where to watch Oliveira vs Bautista

Vinicius Oliveira vs Mario Bautista is on the UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira card on Feb 7, 2026 at Las Vegas, Nevada, USA. The bout goes out inside that card on the official UFC broadcaster or streaming service for your country — UFC Fight Pass and the UFC schedule show who holds the rights where you are. AgentMMA is not a broadcaster and never hosts or links to fight streams.

There is no legal free stream of a full UFC main card in most countries — broadcaster free trials, free-to-air coverage in a handful of markets and the occasional early prelim on the UFC's official channels are the legitimate exceptions. Free here for Oliveira vs Bautista: the tale of the tape, verified stats, market odds and community picks.