An analysis examines the central question of the Maddalena versus Prates fight: will there be a head-on collision in the center, and if not, who will retreat. Prates has dropped opponents 11 times in the UFC while moving forward and rarely backs up. Maddalena similarly builds his game on forward pressure. The analyst notes Maddalena absorbed over 50 clean straight punches against Belal Muhammad, while Prates needs only one to finish fights. However, Maddalena has advantages in short combination boxing and counter-punching, areas where Prates struggles when pressured. The piece explains that Ian Garry succeeded by feeling Prates' left straight on millimeters and having superior size, speed, and leg kicks. Maddalena will rely more heavily on boxing but hits harder than Garry and can force Prates backward. Despite the puzzle-like nature of the matchup, the analyst picks Maddalena, predicting he'll force Prates to retreat and win by decision or TKO in rounds 3-4.
Cage Horror Night has published a detailed breakdown of the welterweight matchup between Jack Della Maddalena and Carlos Prates, centering on a deceptively simple question: when two relentless pressure fighters meet in the middle, who blinks first?
Della Maddalena, ranked fourth in the welterweight division and 13th pound-for-pound, carries an 18-4 record into the fight. The 29-year-old Australian out of Scrappy MMA is a switch-stance boxer standing five-foot-eleven with a 73-inch reach, landing an impressive 5.57 significant strikes per minute at 51 percent accuracy. His game is built on forward movement and short combination punching, and the analyst credits him with real counter-punching ability when opponents try to engage him on the outside.
Prates, nicknamed The Nightmare, is the fifth-ranked welterweight from Brazil fighting out of Vale Top Team. The 32-year-old is listed at six-foot-one with a 78-inch reach and holds a 24-7 record. His 55 percent striking accuracy and habit of marching forward have produced 11 knockdowns of UFC opponents, and the breakdown notes he almost never retreats. He converts regularly on his left straight, needing minimal volume to finish fights, averaging 3.77 significant strikes per minute.
The analysis uses Della Maddalena's previous fight with Belal Muhammad — where he absorbed more than 50 clean straight punches — as evidence of a real vulnerability. Prates, it argues, requires only one of those punches to land clean to change a fight entirely.
Why it matters
- Both fighters rely on forward pressure, making it genuinely unclear who yields ground when they meet center cage
- Prates carries a significant reach advantage at 78 inches versus 73, and his left straight has finished fights against top competition
- Della Maddalena's short combination boxing and counter-punching could exploit Prates when he is put on the back foot, an area identified as a weakness
- The analyst picks Della Maddalena to force retreat and win by decision or TKO in rounds three or four, citing his harder punch output compared to Ian Garry, who needed superior size and speed to manage Prates at distance
