An analytical breakdown of the upcoming welterweight bout between Jack Della Maddalena and Carlos Prates at UFC Perth discusses the stylistic challenges both fighters face. The analysis notes that Maddalena struggles when opponents control distance with kicks and footwork, which he lacks compared to Ian Garry. The piece suggests Maddalena's only path to victory is pressuring Prates for 25 minutes while maintaining perfect defense, which seems unlikely. Prates is described as dangerous until the final seconds, with the ability to finish fights even after losing rounds. The prediction favors Prates based on his power and Maddalena's defensive vulnerabilities. Odds are listed at 1.9 for Maddalena and 1.8 for Prates.
A recent analytical piece has identified Carlos Prates as the likely winner over Jack Della Maddalena in the welterweight main event at UFC Perth, pointing to specific defensive vulnerabilities in Maddalena's game that could prove costly against the Brazilian striker.
Della Maddalena enters the fight ranked fourth in the welterweight division and 13th pound-for-pound, carrying an 18-4 record at 29 years old. The Australian out of Scrappy MMA stands five-foot-eleven with a 73-inch reach and has built a reputation as one of the division's most prolific strikers, averaging 5.57 significant strikes per minute at 51 percent accuracy. The analysis highlights, however, that he struggles when opponents use kicks and lateral footwork to control distance — a defensive gap the piece suggests opponents with quality kicking games can consistently exploit.
Prates, nicknamed "The Nightmare," is ranked fifth at welterweight and comes in at 32 years old with a 24-7 record for Vale Top Team. The Brazilian stands six-foot-one with a notably longer 78-inch reach and strikes at 55 percent accuracy. The breakdown emphasizes his finishing ability deep into bouts, noting that Prates remains dangerous even after falling behind on the scorecards and carries the power to end fights in the championship rounds.
Why it matters
- A Prates win would likely vault him into top-three welterweight contention, directly threatening the title picture
- Maddalena's path to victory, per the analysis, requires sustained pressure for 25 minutes alongside near-perfect defense — a combination the piece considers unlikely
- The reach advantage of five inches in favor of Prates plays directly into the distance-control and kicking game that the analysis identifies as Maddalena's primary weakness
- Both fighters are switch-stance strikers, making the kicking dynamic and range management central to the stylistic matchup
