Analysis of UFC 328 suggests Khamzat Chimaev may have been preparing for a light heavyweight debut before plans changed last minute. Analyst Vlad Matveev theorizes this could explain Chimaev's poor cardio despite working with top-level sports science professionals. The piece compares Joshua Vann versus Kai Asakura to the Moreno-Figueiredo rivalry for a younger generation, predicting future rematches. Alexander Volkov received what the analyst calls "cashback" for his controversial loss to Ciryl Gane, with two consecutive close decisions going his way. Chimaev apologized for going too far in promoting the Strickland fight, but this came after his "aura" had already been damaged by the performance and his overly friendly demeanor toward an opponent who had insulted him for months.
MMA analyst Vlad Matveev has put forward a theory, as yet unconfirmed, that Khamzat Chimaev may have been preparing for a light heavyweight debut ahead of UFC 328 before a last-minute change in direction sent him back to middleweight to face Sean Strickland. The analysis, which should be treated as speculation rather than established fact, suggests this possible camp pivot could account for Chimaev's widely criticized cardio performance on the night.
Strickland, the reigning middleweight champion, carried a 31-7 record into the bout at 35 years of age. Fighting out of Xtreme Couture and trained in the orthodox stance, the American is one of the most active strikers in the division, landing 6.04 significant strikes per minute with a 76-inch reach. According to Matveev's piece, Chimaev also drew scrutiny for his demeanor toward Strickland, an opponent who had spent months publicly criticizing him — with the analyst noting that Chimaev's subsequent apology for overly aggressive promotion came only after the damage to his public image had already been done.
Elsewhere in the UFC 328 breakdown, Matveev drew a generational comparison between the Joshua Van versus Kai Asakura flyweight contest and the historic Moreno-Figueiredo rivalry, predicting the two will meet again multiple times. Van, the 24-year-old flyweight champion from Myanmar, carries a 17-2 record and an eye-catching 56 percent striking accuracy, landing 8.84 significant strikes per minute — numbers that make the Moreno parallel an understandable one to reach for.
The analyst also addressed Alexander Volkov's situation at heavyweight. The 37-year-old Russian, ranked first in the division with a 40-11 record, had previously suffered what many felt was a controversial decision loss to Ciryl Gane. Matveev describes two subsequent close decisions in Volkov's favor as a form of karmic correction, or in his framing, "cashback" for that outcome.
Why it matters
- If the light heavyweight theory holds any weight, it raises questions about matchmaking and camp preparation for Chimaev heading into his next assignment
- Volkov sitting at number one in the heavyweight rankings, with back-to-back close decisions now in his ledger, keeps his title picture complicated
- Van's early-career trajectory and striking output suggest the flyweight division could be built around him for years to come
Saturday, May 9, 2026
