At UFC 328, an unusual statistical anomaly occurred twice in title fights. Historically, fighters who complete 5+ takedowns in UFC title bouts win 81.08% of the time, and those with 7+ takedowns win 83% of the time. However, both Khamzat Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira lost their respective title fights despite landing 9 and 8 takedowns. Taira's performance was particularly notable with strong takedowns, full ground control, and nearly 11 minutes of control time, yet he was stopped and finished. The post suggests this highlights the importance of complete versatility in modern MMA, as wrestling alone, despite being highly effective, becomes less reliable when factors like weight cutting, injuries, or health issues come into play.
Two back-to-back championship fights at UFC 328 on May 9 produced one of the rarest statistical outcomes in recent title-bout history, with both Khamzat Chimaev and Tatsuro Taira suffering losses despite completing nine and eight takedowns respectively in their bouts.
Historically, UFC title-fight data shows fighters who complete five or more takedowns win roughly 81 percent of the time, and that figure rises to 83 percent when the threshold climbs to seven or more. Both men cleared that bar with room to spare and still came away empty-handed.
Taira, the 26-year-old Japanese flyweight ranked fifth in his division, carried a 18-2 record into his championship opportunity and was perhaps the more eye-catching case. His ground game was relentless — he averages 3.12 takedowns per 15 minutes and 1.6 submission attempts over the same span — and on the night he added nearly 11 minutes of control time to his eight successful takedowns. Yet he was stopped before the final bell, unable to convert his positional dominance into a finish or survive to the judges' scorecards.
The flyweight title he was pursuing belongs to Joshua Van, the 24-year-old from Myanmar who improved to 17-2 and retained the championship. Van is one of the most accurate strikers in the division, connecting at 56 percent and generating 8.84 significant strikes per minute, numbers that underline how dangerous he remains even when taken down.
In the middleweight title fight, 35-year-old Sean Strickland of the United States, now 31-7, retained his championship against Chimaev despite facing nine takedowns across the contest.
Why it matters
- The results challenge the assumption that elite wrestling alone is sufficient to win a UFC title fight.
- Taira's loss despite near-historic grappling output raises questions about the limits of a wrestling-heavy game plan when a finisher controls the exchanges.
- Both outcomes reinforce that top-level champions like Van and Strickland can neutralize volume grappling through striking efficiency and finishing ability.
- The statistical anomaly occurring twice on the same card is, by the historical numbers, an extraordinarily uncommon event.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
