At UFC 328, a rare event occurred twice: fighters who secured 8 or more takedowns in title bouts both lost their fights. Historically, fighters landing 5+ takedowns in UFC title fights win 81.08% of the time, and those with 7+ takedowns win 83% of the time. Chimaev and Taira landed 9 and 8 takedowns respectively but still lost. The post analyzes that while elite wrestlers maintain 80% win probability, total well-roundedness is superior. Wrestling is highly energy-dependent and affected by factors like weight cut, injuries, and health. The analysis suggests Chimaev has potential as a more complete striker and could benefit from focusing more on striking technique rather than relying primarily on wrestling.
UFC 328 produced a statistical anomaly on Saturday night when two fighters landed eight or more takedowns in title fights and still walked away with losses — a double occurrence that has almost no precedent in UFC championship history.
Khamzat Chimaev, the undefeated-until-recently middleweight contender ranked first in his division and tenth pound-for-pound, finished the night with nine takedowns against Sean Strickland yet came up short on the scorecards. Chimaev, 32, carries a 15-1 record and fights out of Allstars Training Center. His wrestling pedigree is extraordinary, averaging 5.29 takedowns per 15 minutes across his career, and he strikes at 60 percent accuracy. Strickland, now 31-7, retained the middleweight championship at age 35. The American southpaw out of Xtreme Couture is not a high-volume grappler — just 0.71 takedowns per 15 minutes — but outputs a relentless 6.04 significant strikes per minute, enough to keep judges attentive even from the bottom.
In the flyweight title bout, Japan's Tatsuro Taira delivered eight takedowns and still lost. Ranked fifth at flyweight, the 26-year-old holds an 18-2 record and is one of the division's most prolific grapplers, averaging 3.12 takedowns per 15 minutes alongside 1.6 submission attempts in the same span. His 60 percent striking accuracy suggests genuine technical polish, but it was not enough to secure the belt.
Why it matters
- Historically, fighters landing five or more takedowns in UFC title bouts win 81 percent of the time, making two losses in a single event at that threshold extraordinary.
- Both outcomes reinforce that wrestling volume alone cannot guarantee championship decisions against complete, durable opponents.
- The results raise real questions about energy expenditure — wrestling is physically costly, and factors like weight cuts and accumulated fatigue can erode its effectiveness over championship rounds.
- Chimaev's 60 percent striking accuracy hints at untapped upside in the stand-up game, a dimension analysts suggest could make him more dangerous than his grappling-first approach currently allows.
Saturday, May 9, 2026
