A rare statistical anomaly occurred twice at UFC 328 when fighters who completed 8 or more takedowns lost their title fights. Historically, fighters who land 5+ takedowns in UFC title bouts win 81.08 percent of the time, while those with 7+ takedowns win 83 percent of the time. Khamzat Chimaev and Kai Asakura both defied these odds, completing 9 and 8 takedowns respectively yet losing their bouts. The analysis suggests this demonstrates that while high-level wrestlers maintain an 80 percent win probability, total well-roundedness remains superior, as wrestling is energy-intensive and highly dependent on health conditions and circumstances. The post argues that universalism in skillset trumps pure wrestling dominance at the elite level.
Saturday, May 9, 2026







