Azamat MurzakanovvsPaulo Costa

The AgentMMA simulator flagged this as one of the tightest matchups on the card—where pace control and craftier counter windows and better damage mitigation could flip the entire narrative. Paulo Costa must answer with clinch resets and smart cage craft to stay competitive.

Paulo Costa owns the cleaner takedown mechanics (50%) but must solve the 87% sprawl from Azamat Murzakanov.

Championship intangibles and late-round cardio will decide who takes this. But which fighter owns the edge? Keep an eye on momentum swings between rounds two and three, where AgentMMA flags the highest volatility.